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Start Justin Herbert or Geno Smith? Week 9

Updated Nov 3, 3:51 AM ET.

Start Geno Smith over Justin Herbert

Start

Geno Smith

QB · NYJ · at KC

Market projects
13.7
recent weeks avg
KC D vs QB
13.0
3rd fewest to QBs (2026)
Snap share
100%
Through Week 8
Sit

Justin Herbert

QB · LAC · vs HOU

Market projects
12.9
recent weeks avg
HOU D vs QB
18.5
11th most to QBs (2026)
Snap share
100%
Through Week 8

Should I drop Geno Smith for Justin Herbert?

Not on these numbers alone. Geno Smith projects 122 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (15.3 a game over 8 games) and Justin Herbert 125 (13.9 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Geno Smith over Justin Herbert.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Geno Smith over Justin Herbert in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Geno Smith at 13.7 points and Justin Herbert at 12.9, a gap of 0.8. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Geno Smith this week yet, so his 13.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6, 7 and 8 (10.6, 15.0 and 15.6); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Justin Herbert this week yet, so his 12.9 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6 and 8 (13.8 and 12.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 9 player market is posted for Geno Smith yet. His market-based projections were 10.6, 15.0 and 15.6 points in Weeks 6, 7 and 8, an average of 13.7, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

No Week 9 player market is posted for Justin Herbert yet. His market-based projections were 13.8 and 12.0 points in Weeks 6 and 8, an average of 12.9, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

That puts Geno Smith 0.8 points ahead of Justin Herbert on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Geno Smith and NYJ visit KC on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

KC allowed 13.0 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 3rd fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 230 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against KC, with an interception a game.

Justin Herbert and LAC host HOU on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

HOU allowed 18.5 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 11th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 263 yards and 1.4 touchdowns a game against HOU, with 0.4 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Justin Herbert has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Geno Smith is not on the injury report.

Justin Herbert is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Geno Smith played 100 percent of NYJ snaps, dropped back 272 times and threw an average of 7.9 air yards per attempt.

Geno Smith, Week 5 against CLE: 70 of 70 snaps, 17 of 30 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 9 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 6 against NE: 62 of 62 snaps, 20 of 30 passes for 252 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 1 carry for 0 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 7 against MIA: 59 of 59 snaps, 23 of 30 passes for 287 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 8 against LV: 20 of 32 passes for 290 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 4 yards.

Through Week 8, Justin Herbert played 100 percent of LAC snaps, dropped back 255 times and threw an average of 7.4 air yards per attempt.

Justin Herbert, Week 4 against SEA: 71 of 71 snaps, 19 of 31 passes for 189 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 6 carries for 40 yards.

Justin Herbert, Week 5 against DEN: 67 of 67 snaps, 14 of 23 passes for 121 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 6 carries for 54 yards.

Justin Herbert, Week 6 against KC: 68 of 68 snaps, 22 of 37 passes for 204 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 5 carries for 26 yards.

Justin Herbert, Week 8 against LAR: 24 of 31 passes for 257 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 4 carries for 15 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Geno Smith played 15 games for LV and scored 190.9 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing QB23.

He completed 302 of 448 passes for 3025 yards, 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, and ran 41 times for 109 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Justin Herbert played 16 games for LAC and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.

He completed 340 of 512 passes for 3727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Geno Smith for Justin Herbert?

    Not on these numbers alone. Geno Smith projects 122 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (15.3 a game over 8 games) and Justin Herbert 125 (13.9 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Geno Smith over Justin Herbert.

  • Should I drop Justin Herbert for Geno Smith?

    Not on these numbers alone. Justin Herbert projects 125 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (13.9 a game over 9 games) and Geno Smith 122 (15.3 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Geno Smith over Justin Herbert.

Should I drop Geno Smith?

Week 9 on the board

Elsewhere on the board