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Start Baker Mayfield or Geno Smith? Week 9

Updated Nov 2, 10:31 PM ET.

Start Baker Mayfield over Geno Smith

Start

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CHI

Market projects
16.0
recent weeks avg
CHI D vs QB
19.9
10th most to QBs (2026)
Snap share
96%
Through Week 8
Sit

Geno Smith

QB · NYJ · at KC

Market projects
13.7
recent weeks avg
KC D vs QB
13.0
3rd fewest to QBs (2026)
Snap share
100%
Through Week 8

Should I drop Geno Smith for Baker Mayfield?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 129 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 8 games), Geno Smith 122 (15.3 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Geno Smith.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Geno Smith in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Baker Mayfield at 16.0 points and Geno Smith at 13.7, a gap of 2.3. No player market is posted for Baker Mayfield this week yet, so his 16.0 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 7 and 8 (16.0 and 16.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Geno Smith this week yet, so his 13.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6, 7 and 8 (10.6, 15.0 and 15.6); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 9 player market is posted for Baker Mayfield yet. His market-based projections were 16.0 and 16.0 points in Weeks 7 and 8, an average of 16.0, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

No Week 9 player market is posted for Geno Smith yet. His market-based projections were 10.6, 15.0 and 15.6 points in Weeks 6, 7 and 8, an average of 13.7, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

That puts Baker Mayfield 2.3 points ahead of Geno Smith on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CHI on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

CHI allowed 19.9 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 10th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 241 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against CHI, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

Geno Smith and NYJ visit KC on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

KC allowed 13.0 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 3rd fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 230 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against KC, with an interception a game.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Geno Smith is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Baker Mayfield played 96 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 134 times and threw an average of 8.4 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 7 against CAR: 57 of 63 snaps, 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 8 against ATL: 0 of 3 passes for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 15 yards.

Through Week 8, Geno Smith played 100 percent of NYJ snaps, dropped back 272 times and threw an average of 7.9 air yards per attempt.

Geno Smith, Week 5 against CLE: 70 of 70 snaps, 17 of 30 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 9 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 6 against NE: 62 of 62 snaps, 20 of 30 passes for 252 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 1 carry for 0 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 7 against MIA: 59 of 59 snaps, 23 of 30 passes for 287 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 8 against LV: 20 of 32 passes for 290 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 4 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Geno Smith played 15 games for LV and scored 190.9 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing QB23.

He completed 302 of 448 passes for 3025 yards, 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, and ran 41 times for 109 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Geno Smith for Baker Mayfield?

    Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 129 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 8 games), Geno Smith 122 (15.3 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Geno Smith.

  • Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Geno Smith?

    No. Keep Baker Mayfield: he projects 129 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 8 games), Geno Smith 122 (15.3 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Geno Smith.

Should I drop Geno Smith?

Week 8 on the board

Elsewhere on the board