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Start Jaylen Waddle or Luther Burden III? Week 9

Updated Nov 3, 11:11 AM ET.

Start Jaylen Waddle over Luther Burden III

Waddle projects lower, 11.3 to 12.5, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 43 for Waddle, 51 for Burden.

Start

Jaylen Waddle

WR · DEN · at CAR

Market projects
11.3
fantasy pts
CAR D vs WR
29.8
13th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside
Moderate
59 of 100 at WR
Snap share
63%
Through Week 8
Target share
23%
Through Week 8
Sit

Luther Burden III

WR · CHI · vs TB

Market projects
12.5
recent weeks avg
TB D vs WR
28.0
8th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside
Rising
78 of 100 at WR
Snap share
61%
Through Week 8
Target share
20%
Through Week 8

Should I drop Luther Burden III for Jaylen Waddle?

Not on these numbers alone. Luther Burden III projects 93 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (11.6 a game over 8 games) and Jaylen Waddle 97 (12.1 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Jaylen Waddle over Luther Burden III.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Jaylen Waddle over Luther Burden III in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Jaylen Waddle at 11.3 points and Luther Burden III at 12.5, a gap of 1.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Jaylen Waddle still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 43 against 51, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for Luther Burden III this week yet, so his 12.5 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6, 7 and 8 (12.6, 12.7 and 12.1); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 9 player market is posted for Luther Burden III yet. His market-based projections were 12.6, 12.7 and 12.1 points in Weeks 6, 7 and 8, an average of 12.5, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

Player markets imply 11.3 fantasy points for Jaylen Waddle, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The market-based projection for Jaylen Waddle is 45 receiving yards, 4-5 receptions and 0.4 touchdowns (8, 6 and 10 market sources).

That puts Luther Burden III 1.2 points ahead of Jaylen Waddle on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Luther Burden III and CHI host TB on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

TB allowed 28.0 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 8 games, the 8th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 131 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against TB.

Jaylen Waddle and DEN visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 29.8 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the 13th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 144 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against CAR.

By points allowed to the position, Jaylen Waddle has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Luther Burden III is not on the injury report.

Jaylen Waddle is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Luther Burden III played 61 percent of CHI snaps, drew 20 percent of the targets, earned 13 percent of the air yards and had 14 percent of the red zone chances.

Luther Burden III, Week 7 against NE: 42 of 69 snaps, 1 carry for 7 yards, 4 targets and 4 catches for 130 yards, 1 touchdown.

Luther Burden III, Week 8 against SEA: 9 targets and 7 catches for 56 yards, 1 touchdown.

Through Week 8, Jaylen Waddle played 63 percent of DEN snaps, drew 23 percent of the targets, earned 37 percent of the air yards and had 8 percent of the red zone chances.

Jaylen Waddle, Week 5 against LAC: 40 of 62 snaps, 1 carry for 9 yards, 5 targets and 2 catches for 19 yards.

Jaylen Waddle, Week 6 against SEA: 39 of 60 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 24 yards.

Jaylen Waddle, Week 7 against ARI: 34 of 61 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 48 yards.

Jaylen Waddle, Week 8 against KC: 28 of 62 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 39 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Luther Burden III played 15 games for CHI and scored 127.9 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR48.

He caught 47 of 60 targets for 652 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 4 red zone targets and 318 air yards.

He was on the field for 39 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Luther Burden III, Week 18 of 2025 against DET: 1 carry for 10 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 35 yards, 7.5 PPR points.

In 2025, Jaylen Waddle played 16 games for MIA and scored 194.1 PPR points, 12.1 a game, finishing WR24.

He caught 64 of 100 targets for 910 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 11 red zone targets and 682 air yards.

He was on the field for 78 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Luther Burden III for Jaylen Waddle?

    Not on these numbers alone. Luther Burden III projects 93 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (11.6 a game over 8 games) and Jaylen Waddle 97 (12.1 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Jaylen Waddle over Luther Burden III.

  • Should I drop Jaylen Waddle for Luther Burden III?

    Not on these numbers alone. Jaylen Waddle projects 97 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (12.1 a game over 8 games) and Luther Burden III 93 (11.6 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Jaylen Waddle over Luther Burden III.

Week 9 on the board

Elsewhere on the board