Should I drop Patrick Mahomes for Joe Burrow?

Not on these numbers alone. Patrick Mahomes projects 174 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.4 a game over 10 games) and Joe Burrow 170 (17.0 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Joe Burrow over Patrick Mahomes.

Start Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow? Week 8

Updated Oct 27, 1:26 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Joe Burrow over Patrick Mahomes

Start

Joe Burrow

QB · CIN · vs TEN

Market projects: 17.4; recent weeks avg
TEN D vs QB: 16.1; 11th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 72 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 99%; Through Week 7

Sit

Patrick Mahomes

QB · KC · at DEN

Market projects: 16.8; fantasy pts
DEN D vs QB: 16.1; 12th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 28 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 7

Should I drop Joe Burrow for Patrick Mahomes?

Not on these numbers alone. Joe Burrow projects 170 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.0 a game over 10 games) and Patrick Mahomes 174 (17.4 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Joe Burrow over Patrick Mahomes.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Joe Burrow over Patrick Mahomes in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Joe Burrow at 17.4 points and Patrick Mahomes at 16.8, a gap of 0.6. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Patrick Mahomes's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. No player market is posted for Joe Burrow this week yet, so his 17.4 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 5 and 7 (17.6 and 17.2); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Joe Burrow at ADP 55 and Patrick Mahomes at 107.

What the market projects

No Week 8 player market is posted for Joe Burrow yet. His market-based projections were 17.6 and 17.2 points in Weeks 5 and 7, an average of 17.4, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

Player markets imply 16.8 fantasy points for Patrick Mahomes, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Patrick Mahomes is 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 touchdowns (3 and 3 market sources).

That puts Joe Burrow 0.6 points ahead of Patrick Mahomes on these projections.

Week 8 matchups

Joe Burrow and CIN host TEN on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

TEN allowed 16.1 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 11th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 246 yards and 0.9 touchdowns a game against TEN, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

Patrick Mahomes and KC visit DEN on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

DEN allowed 16.2 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 12th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 236 yards and 1.1 touchdowns a game against DEN, with an interception a game.

By points allowed to the position, Patrick Mahomes has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Joe Burrow is not on the injury report.

Patrick Mahomes is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, Joe Burrow played 99 percent of CIN snaps, dropped back 236 times and threw an average of 7.2 air yards per attempt.

Joe Burrow, Week 3 against PIT: 57 of 57 snaps, 28 of 37 passes for 282 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 13 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 4 against JAX: 76 of 76 snaps, 39 of 54 passes for 428 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 6 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 5 against MIA: 65 of 65 snaps, 23 of 32 passes for 190 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 7 against BAL: 50 of 53 snaps, 22 of 30 passes for 292 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Through Week 7, Patrick Mahomes played 100 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 210 times and threw an average of 6.0 air yards per attempt.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 3 against MIA: 52 of 52 snaps, 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 4 against LV: 60 of 60 snaps, 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 6 against LAC: 61 of 61 snaps, 23 of 30 passes for 272 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 3 carries for 19 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 7 against SEA: 53 of 53 snaps, 19 of 33 passes for 165 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 14 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Joe Burrow played 8 games for CIN and scored 139.5 PPR points, 17.4 a game, finishing QB29.

He completed 173 of 259 passes for 1809 yards, 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and ran 14 times for 41 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Joe Burrow for Patrick Mahomes?
Not on these numbers alone. Joe Burrow projects 170 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.0 a game over 10 games) and Patrick Mahomes 174 (17.4 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Joe Burrow over Patrick Mahomes.
Should I drop Patrick Mahomes for Joe Burrow?
Not on these numbers alone. Patrick Mahomes projects 174 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.4 a game over 10 games) and Joe Burrow 170 (17.0 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Joe Burrow over Patrick Mahomes.