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Trade A.J. Brown for Zay Flowers? Yes, Flowers is worth 12 more.

Yes on value. Zay Flowers is worth 51 rest of season and A.J. Brown 39, so the side getting Flowers gains 12. Brown rates 13.4 market points a game with 9 games left, Flowers 14.8 with 9. On usage, Brown has drawn 22 percent of NE targets; Flowers has drawn 31 percent of BAL targets. Brown is at MIA in Week 8 (3rd fewest points allowed to WRs); Flowers is at BUF in Week 8 (most points allowed to WRs). A.J. Brown is listed Questionable (ankle).

The verdict, Week 8

Getting Zay Flowers wins by 12.

A.J. Brown 3951 Zay Flowers

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A.J. Brown

WR19NEQuestionable

39

value, #40

Pts/game
13.4
Games left
9
Bye
11
A.J. Brown weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8
no projectionno projectionno projection3.315.513.4

Zay Flowers

WR12BAL

51

value, #30

Pts/game
14.8
Games left
9
Bye
13
Zay Flowers weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8
16.115.114.62.62.817.4

Where the values come from

Brown is the 19th receiver on the chart and 40th overall. His 13.4 a game is 4.3 above the replacement receiver's 9.1, over 9 games left with his bye in Week 11, which is how he comes to 39.

Flowers is the 12th receiver on the chart and 30th overall. His 14.8 a game is 5.7 above the replacement receiver's 9.1, over 9 games left with his bye in Week 13, which is how he comes to 51.

The weekly projections

Parlae's market-based projections had A.J. Brown at 3.3 in Week 6, 15.5 in Week 7 and 13.4 in Week 8, a median of 13.4 points a game, up 10.0 from his first frozen week to his latest.

Parlae's market-based projections had Zay Flowers at 16.1 in Week 3, 15.1 in Week 4, 14.6 in Week 5, 2.6 in Week 6, 2.8 in Week 7 and 17.4 in Week 8, a median of 14.8 points a game, up 1.3 from his first frozen week to his latest.

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Points so far against the price

A.J. Brown has scored 19.1 PPR points in 3 games, 6.4 a game, 7.0 a game less than the 13.4 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished WR11 with 220.3 PPR points in 15 games with PHI, 14.7 a game.

Week 1 vs SEA: 5.6 points (WR66 that week), 3 of 4 targets for 26 yards, 44 percent of snaps.

Week 6 vs NYJ: 5.7 points (WR59 that week), 3 of 10 targets for 27 yards, 76 percent of snaps.

Week 7 vs CHI: 7.8 points (WR35 that week), 3 of 6 targets for 48 yards, 91 percent of snaps.

Zay Flowers has scored 122.2 PPR points in 6 games, 20.4 a game, 5.6 a game more than the 14.8 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished WR7 with 243.3 PPR points in 17 games, 14.3 a game.

Week 1 vs IND: 26.0 points (WR7 that week), 5 of 6 targets for 150 yards, 1 touchdown, 29 percent of snaps.

Week 3 vs DAL: 15.4 points (WR22 that week), 20 rushing yards on 1 carry, 5 of 6 targets for 84 yards, 33 percent of snaps.

Week 4 vs TEN: 25.8 points (WR7 that week), 8 of 10 targets for 118 yards, 1 touchdown, 73 percent of snaps.

Week 5 vs ATL: 14.6 points (WR20 that week), 13 rushing yards on 1 carry, 8 of 9 targets for 53 yards, 82 percent of snaps.

Week 6 vs CLE: 12.7 points (WR28 that week), 1 rushing yards on 1 carry, 6 of 11 targets for 66 yards, 88 percent of snaps.

Week 7 vs CIN: 27.7 points (WR2 that week), 8 of 11 targets for 137 yards, 1 touchdown, 85 percent of snaps.

Usage a game this season

Through Week 7, A.J. Brown has averaged 6.7 targets and 3.0 catches for 34 yards a game on 68 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 3 times inside the 20, 15 percent of his team's chances there, and has not scored in 3 games.

In Week 7 against CHI he had 6 targets on 91 percent of the snaps.

Through Week 7, Zay Flowers has averaged 0-1 carries for 6 yards and 8.8 targets and 6.7 catches for 101 yards a game on 65 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 8 times inside the 20, 12 percent of his team's chances there, and has scored 3 touchdowns in 6 games.

In Week 7 against CIN he had 11 targets on 85 percent of the snaps.

Schedule and next matchup

A trade made now buys Week 8 through Week 17. A.J. Brown has 9 games in it with his bye in Week 11; Zay Flowers has 9 games with his bye in Week 13.

MIA, Brown's Week 8 opponent, has allowed 23.8 PPR points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 3rd fewest to WRs of 32.

BUF, Flowers's Week 8 opponent, has allowed 42.3 PPR points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the most to WRs of 32.

What would even it

The side getting A.J. Brown would want about 12 more added to make it even: a player like Denzel Boston, valued at 13. Two players for Flowers also costs that side a roster spot.

Denzel Boston's player page

Other trades for A.J. Brown and Zay Flowers

The full Week 8 trade value chart

Week 8 on the board

Common questions

  • Should I trade A.J. Brown for Zay Flowers?

    Yes on value: Zay Flowers is worth 51 and A.J. Brown 39, a gain of 12. If A.J. Brown starts for you and Zay Flowers would sit, check the lineup first in the trade analyzer.

  • Who has more rest-of-season value, A.J. Brown or Zay Flowers?

    Zay Flowers, 51 to 39. He rates 14.8 market points a game over 9 games left, against 13.4 over 9 for A.J. Brown, each measured above a replacement starter at his own position.

  • How are these trade values calculated?

    Each player's points per game is the median of the market-based PPR points we froze before each week's first kickoff, Weeks 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. A replacement starter's rate is subtracted and the rest is multiplied by his games from Week 8 to Week 17, bye taken out. No expert opinion is involved.

By the Parlae deskValues updated Oct 29, 2026 at 11:31 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number