Skip to main content
parlae.io
Sign in

Trade A.J. Brown for Christian Watson? Yes, Watson is worth 11 more.

Yes on value. Christian Watson is worth 50 rest of season and A.J. Brown 39, so the side getting Watson gains 11. Brown rates 13.4 market points a game with 9 games left, Watson 14.7 with 9. On usage, Brown has drawn 22 percent of NE targets; Watson has drawn 21 percent of GB targets. Brown is at MIA in Week 8 (3rd fewest points allowed to WRs); Watson hosts CAR in Week 8 (6th fewest points allowed to WRs). A.J. Brown is listed Questionable (ankle).

The verdict, Week 8

Getting Christian Watson wins by 11.

A.J. Brown 3950 Christian Watson

Advertisement

Run this trade in the analyzer

Both sides are filled in. Add a player to either side to check a two for one.

Give Brown, get WatsonGive Watson, get Brown

In a dynasty league? Run it in the dynasty trade calculator.

See it against your lineup

Sync your league and the analyzer shows your best starting lineup before and after the deal. Free, no account.

SleeperESPNYahoo

Parlae may earn a commission from price links.

A.J. Brown

WR19NEQuestionable

39

value, #40

Pts/game
13.4
Games left
9
Bye
11
A.J. Brown weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8
no projectionno projectionno projection3.315.513.4

Christian Watson

WR13GB

50

value, #31

Pts/game
14.7
Games left
9
Bye
11
Christian Watson weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8
14.713.913.015.314.914.8

Where the values come from

Brown is the 19th receiver on the chart and 40th overall. His 13.4 a game is 4.3 above the replacement receiver's 9.1, over 9 games left with his bye in Week 11, which is how he comes to 39.

Watson is the 13th receiver on the chart and 31st overall. His 14.7 a game is 5.6 above the replacement receiver's 9.1, over 9 games left with his bye in Week 11, which is how he comes to 50.

The weekly projections

Parlae's market-based projections had A.J. Brown at 3.3 in Week 6, 15.5 in Week 7 and 13.4 in Week 8, a median of 13.4 points a game, up 10.0 from his first frozen week to his latest.

Parlae's market-based projections had Christian Watson at 14.7 in Week 3, 13.9 in Week 4, 13.0 in Week 5, 15.3 in Week 6, 14.9 in Week 7 and 14.8 in Week 8, a median of 14.7 points a game, flat across them.

Advertisement

Points so far against the price

A.J. Brown has scored 19.1 PPR points in 3 games, 6.4 a game, 7.0 a game less than the 13.4 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished WR11 with 220.3 PPR points in 15 games with PHI, 14.7 a game.

Week 1 vs SEA: 5.6 points (WR66 that week), 3 of 4 targets for 26 yards, 44 percent of snaps.

Week 6 vs NYJ: 5.7 points (WR59 that week), 3 of 10 targets for 27 yards, 76 percent of snaps.

Week 7 vs CHI: 7.8 points (WR35 that week), 3 of 6 targets for 48 yards, 91 percent of snaps.

Christian Watson has scored 129.5 PPR points in 7 games, 18.5 a game, 3.8 a game more than the 14.7 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished WR46 with 132.4 PPR points in 10 games, 13.2 a game.

Week 1 vs MIN: 32.7 points (WR2 that week), 6 of 8 targets for 147 yards, 2 touchdowns, 76 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs NYJ: 14.1 points (WR21 that week), 4 of 11 targets for 41 yards, 1 touchdown, 90 percent of snaps.

Week 3 vs ATL: 22.6 points (WR6 that week), 7 of 10 targets for 96 yards, 1 touchdown, 80 percent of snaps.

Week 4 vs TB: 7.7 points (WR55 that week), 3 of 3 targets for 47 yards, 68 percent of snaps.

Week 5 vs CHI: 32.3 points (WR2 that week), 6 of 8 targets for 143 yards, 2 touchdowns, 80 percent of snaps.

Week 6 vs DAL: 9.4 points (WR39 that week), 3 of 8 targets for 64 yards, 88 percent of snaps.

Week 7 vs DET: 10.7 points (WR25 that week), 5 of 8 targets for 57 yards, 81 percent of snaps.

Usage a game this season

Through Week 7, A.J. Brown has averaged 6.7 targets and 3.0 catches for 34 yards a game on 68 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 3 times inside the 20, 15 percent of his team's chances there, and has not scored in 3 games.

In Week 7 against CHI he had 6 targets on 91 percent of the snaps.

Through Week 7, Christian Watson has averaged 8.0 targets and 4.9 catches for 85 yards a game on 81 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 7 times inside the 20, 9 percent of his team's chances there, and has scored 6 touchdowns in 7 games.

In Week 7 against DET he had 8 targets on 81 percent of the snaps.

Schedule and next matchup

A trade made now buys Week 8 through Week 17. A.J. Brown has 9 games in it with his bye in Week 11; Christian Watson has 9 games with his bye in Week 11.

MIA, Brown's Week 8 opponent, has allowed 23.8 PPR points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 3rd fewest to WRs of 32.

CAR, Watson's Week 8 opponent, has allowed 27.7 PPR points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 6th fewest to WRs of 32.

What would even it

The side getting A.J. Brown would want about 11 more added to make it even: a player like Isaiah Likely, valued at 10. Two players for Watson also costs that side a roster spot.

Isaiah Likely's player page

Other trades for A.J. Brown and Christian Watson

The full Week 8 trade value chart

Week 8 on the board

Common questions

  • Should I trade A.J. Brown for Christian Watson?

    Yes on value: Christian Watson is worth 50 and A.J. Brown 39, a gain of 11. If A.J. Brown starts for you and Christian Watson would sit, check the lineup first in the trade analyzer.

  • Who has more rest-of-season value, A.J. Brown or Christian Watson?

    Christian Watson, 50 to 39. He rates 14.7 market points a game over 9 games left, against 13.4 over 9 for A.J. Brown, each measured above a replacement starter at his own position.

  • How are these trade values calculated?

    Each player's points per game is the median of the market-based PPR points we froze before each week's first kickoff, Weeks 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. A replacement starter's rate is subtracted and the rest is multiplied by his games from Week 8 to Week 17, bye taken out. No expert opinion is involved.

By the Parlae deskValues updated Oct 29, 2026 at 11:31 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number