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Trade Chase Brown for Christian Watson? No, Brown is worth 21 more.

No on value. Chase Brown is worth 77 rest of season and Christian Watson 56, so giving up Brown costs 21. Brown rates 15.4 market points a game with 11 games left, Watson 14.7 with 10. On usage, Brown has 65 percent of CIN carries and 15 percent of its targets; Watson has drawn 22 percent of GB targets. Brown is at BAL in Week 7 (6th fewest points allowed to RBs); Watson is at DET in Week 7 (2nd most points allowed to WRs). Christian Watson is listed Questionable (ankle).

The verdict, Week 7

Keeping Chase Brown wins by 21.

Chase Brown 7756 Christian Watson

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Chase Brown

RB11CIN

77

value, #18

Pts/game
15.4
Games left
11
Bye
6
Chase Brown weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7
16.117.412.0no projection14.7

Christian Watson

WR12GBQuestionable

56

value, #30

Pts/game
14.7
Games left
10
Bye
11
Christian Watson weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7
14.713.913.015.314.9

Where the values come from

Brown is the 11th running back on the chart and 18th overall. His 15.4 a game is 7.0 above the replacement running back's 8.4, over 11 games left with no bye left, which is how he comes to 77.

Watson is the 12th receiver on the chart and 30th overall. His 14.7 a game is 5.6 above the replacement receiver's 9.1, over 10 games left with his bye in Week 11, which is how he comes to 56.

The weekly projections

Parlae's market-based projections had Chase Brown at 16.1 in Week 3, 17.4 in Week 4, 12.0 in Week 5 and 14.7 in Week 7, a median of 15.4 points a game, down 1.5 from his first frozen week to his latest.

Parlae's market-based projections had Christian Watson at 14.7 in Week 3, 13.9 in Week 4, 13.0 in Week 5, 15.3 in Week 6 and 14.9 in Week 7, a median of 14.7 points a game, flat across them.

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Points so far against the price

Chase Brown has scored 65.0 PPR points in 5 games, 13.0 a game, 2.4 a game less than the 15.4 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished RB7 with 282.6 PPR points in 17 games, 16.6 a game.

Week 1 vs TB: 18.8 points (RB14 that week), 56 rushing yards on 16 carries, 5 of 6 targets for 22 yards, 1 touchdown, 72 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs HOU: 11.2 points (RB19 that week), 80 rushing yards on 20 carries, 3 of 5 targets for 2 yards, 70 percent of snaps.

Week 3 vs PIT: 8.9 points (RB33 that week), 61 rushing yards on 13 carries, 2 of 2 targets for 8 yards, 70 percent of snaps.

Week 4 vs JAX: 19.1 points (RB13 that week), 10 rushing yards on 9 carries, 11 of 11 targets for 71 yards, 79 percent of snaps.

Week 5 vs MIA: 7.0 points (RB35 that week), 39 rushing yards on 13 carries, 3 of 4 targets for 21 yards, 60 percent of snaps.

Christian Watson has scored 118.8 PPR points in 6 games, 19.8 a game, 5.1 a game more than the 14.7 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished WR46 with 132.4 PPR points in 10 games, 13.2 a game.

Week 1 vs MIN: 32.7 points (WR2 that week), 6 of 8 targets for 147 yards, 2 touchdowns, 76 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs NYJ: 14.1 points (WR21 that week), 4 of 11 targets for 41 yards, 1 touchdown, 90 percent of snaps.

Week 3 vs ATL: 22.6 points (WR6 that week), 7 of 10 targets for 96 yards, 1 touchdown, 80 percent of snaps.

Week 4 vs TB: 7.7 points (WR55 that week), 3 of 3 targets for 47 yards, 68 percent of snaps.

Week 5 vs CHI: 32.3 points (WR2 that week), 6 of 8 targets for 143 yards, 2 touchdowns, 80 percent of snaps.

Week 6 vs DAL: 9.4 points (WR39 that week), 3 of 8 targets for 64 yards, 88 percent of snaps.

Usage a game this season

Through Week 5, Chase Brown has averaged 14.2 carries for 49 yards and 5.6 targets and 4.8 catches for 25 yards a game on 70 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 14 times inside the 20, 29 percent of his team's chances there, and has scored 1 touchdown in 5 games.

In Week 5 against MIA he had 13 carries and 4 targets on 60 percent of the snaps.

Through Week 6, Christian Watson has averaged 8.0 targets and 4.8 catches for 90 yards a game on 81 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 7 times inside the 20, 11 percent of his team's chances there, and has scored 6 touchdowns in 6 games.

In Week 6 against DAL he had 8 targets on 88 percent of the snaps.

Schedule and next matchup

A trade made now buys Week 7 through Week 17. Chase Brown has 11 games in it with no bye left; Christian Watson has 10 games with his bye in Week 11.

BAL, Brown's Week 7 opponent, has allowed 18.5 PPR points a game to RBs this season over 6 games, the 6th fewest to RBs of 32.

DET, Watson's Week 7 opponent, has allowed 41.0 PPR points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 2nd most to WRs of 32.

What would even it

The side getting Christian Watson would want about 21 more added to make it even: a player like Michael Wilson, valued at 21. Two players for Brown also costs that side a roster spot.

Michael Wilson's player page

Other trades for Chase Brown and Christian Watson

The full Week 7 trade value chart

Week 7 on the board

Common questions

  • Should I trade Chase Brown for Christian Watson?

    No on value: Chase Brown is worth 77 and Christian Watson 56, a loss of 21. It can still help a lineup that needs a receiver more than it needs Brown.

  • Who has more rest-of-season value, Chase Brown or Christian Watson?

    Chase Brown, 77 to 56. He rates 15.4 market points a game over 11 games left, against 14.7 over 10 for Christian Watson, each measured above a replacement starter at his own position.

  • How are these trade values calculated?

    Each player's points per game is the median of the market-based PPR points we froze before each week's first kickoff, Weeks 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. A replacement starter's rate is subtracted and the rest is multiplied by his games from Week 7 to Week 17, bye taken out. No expert opinion is involved.

By the Parlae deskValues updated Oct 21, 2026 at 8:21 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number