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Trade Aaron Jones Sr. for Christian Watson? No, Jones is worth 20 more.

No on value. Aaron Jones Sr. is worth 76 rest of season and Christian Watson 56, so giving up Jones costs 20. Jones rates 15.3 market points a game with 11 games left, Watson 14.7 with 10. On usage, Jones has 68 percent of MIN carries and 14 percent of its targets; Watson has drawn 22 percent of GB targets. Jones hosts IND in Week 7 (6th most points allowed to RBs); Watson is at DET in Week 7 (2nd most points allowed to WRs). Christian Watson is listed Questionable (ankle).

The verdict, Week 7

Keeping Aaron Jones Sr. wins by 20.

Aaron Jones Sr. 7656 Christian Watson

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Aaron Jones Sr.

RB13MIN

76

value, #20

Pts/game
15.3
Games left
11
Bye
6
Aaron Jones Sr. weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7
14.117.416.5no projection4.0

Christian Watson

WR12GBQuestionable

56

value, #30

Pts/game
14.7
Games left
10
Bye
11
Christian Watson weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7
14.713.913.015.314.8

Where the values come from

Jones is the 13th running back on the chart and 20th overall. His 15.3 a game is 6.9 above the replacement running back's 8.4, over 11 games left with no bye left, which is how he comes to 76.

Watson is the 12th receiver on the chart and 30th overall. His 14.7 a game is 5.6 above the replacement receiver's 9.1, over 10 games left with his bye in Week 11, which is how he comes to 56.

The weekly projections

Parlae's market-based projections had Aaron Jones Sr. at 14.1 in Week 3, 17.4 in Week 4, 16.5 in Week 5 and 4.1 in Week 7, a median of 15.3 points a game, down 10.0 from his first frozen week to his latest.

Parlae's market-based projections had Christian Watson at 14.7 in Week 3, 13.9 in Week 4, 13.0 in Week 5, 15.3 in Week 6 and 14.9 in Week 7, a median of 14.7 points a game, flat across them.

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Points so far against the price

Aaron Jones Sr. has scored 70.2 PPR points in 5 games, 14.0 a game, 1.3 a game less than the 15.3 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished RB41 with 118.7 PPR points in 12 games, 9.9 a game.

Week 1 vs GB: 10.0 points (RB26 that week), 40 rushing yards on 12 carries, 0 of 1 target for 0 yards, 1 touchdown, 46 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs CHI: 10.5 points (RB22 that week), 105 rushing yards on 23 carries, 81 percent of snaps.

Week 3 vs TB: 14.2 points (RB14 that week), 58 rushing yards on 17 carries, 5 of 6 targets for 34 yards, 80 percent of snaps.

Week 4 vs MIA: 16.8 points (RB18 that week), 94 rushing yards on 20 carries, 4 of 8 targets for 34 yards, 73 percent of snaps.

Week 5 vs NO: 18.7 points (RB7 that week), 113 rushing yards on 25 carries, 3 of 3 targets for 4 yards, 1 touchdown, 87 percent of snaps.

Christian Watson has scored 118.8 PPR points in 6 games, 19.8 a game, 5.1 a game more than the 14.7 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished WR46 with 132.4 PPR points in 10 games, 13.2 a game.

Week 1 vs MIN: 32.7 points (WR2 that week), 6 of 8 targets for 147 yards, 2 touchdowns, 76 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs NYJ: 14.1 points (WR21 that week), 4 of 11 targets for 41 yards, 1 touchdown, 90 percent of snaps.

Week 3 vs ATL: 22.6 points (WR6 that week), 7 of 10 targets for 96 yards, 1 touchdown, 80 percent of snaps.

Week 4 vs TB: 7.7 points (WR55 that week), 3 of 3 targets for 47 yards, 68 percent of snaps.

Week 5 vs CHI: 32.3 points (WR2 that week), 6 of 8 targets for 143 yards, 2 touchdowns, 80 percent of snaps.

Week 6 vs DAL: 9.4 points (WR39 that week), 3 of 8 targets for 64 yards, 88 percent of snaps.

Usage a game this season

Through Week 5, Aaron Jones Sr. has averaged 19.4 carries for 82 yards and 3.6 targets and 2.4 catches for 14 yards a game on 73 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 13 times inside the 20, 39 percent of his team's chances there, and has scored 2 touchdowns in 5 games.

In Week 5 against NO he had 25 carries and 3 targets on 87 percent of the snaps.

Through Week 6, Christian Watson has averaged 8.0 targets and 4.8 catches for 90 yards a game on 81 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 7 times inside the 20, 11 percent of his team's chances there, and has scored 6 touchdowns in 6 games.

In Week 6 against DAL he had 8 targets on 88 percent of the snaps.

Schedule and next matchup

A trade made now buys Week 7 through Week 17. Aaron Jones Sr. has 11 games in it with no bye left; Christian Watson has 10 games with his bye in Week 11.

IND, Jones's Week 7 opponent, has allowed 23.9 PPR points a game to RBs this season over 6 games, the 6th most to RBs of 32.

DET, Watson's Week 7 opponent, has allowed 41.0 PPR points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 2nd most to WRs of 32.

What would even it

The side getting Christian Watson would want about 20 more added to make it even: a player like Tucker Kraft, valued at 20. Two players for Jones also costs that side a roster spot.

Tucker Kraft's player page

Other trades for Aaron Jones Sr. and Christian Watson

The full Week 7 trade value chart

Week 7 on the board

Common questions

  • Should I trade Aaron Jones Sr. for Christian Watson?

    No on value: Aaron Jones Sr. is worth 76 and Christian Watson 56, a loss of 20. It can still help a lineup that needs a receiver more than it needs Jones.

  • Who has more rest-of-season value, Aaron Jones Sr. or Christian Watson?

    Aaron Jones Sr., 76 to 56. He rates 15.3 market points a game over 11 games left, against 14.7 over 10 for Christian Watson, each measured above a replacement starter at his own position.

  • How are these trade values calculated?

    Each player's points per game is the median of the market-based PPR points we froze before each week's first kickoff, Weeks 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. A replacement starter's rate is subtracted and the rest is multiplied by his games from Week 7 to Week 17, bye taken out. No expert opinion is involved.

By the Parlae deskValues updated Oct 21, 2026 at 9:36 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number