Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow: who should I start?

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Trevor Lawrence at 16.6 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 18 books. That is the 24th highest figure of the 183 players the books price.

The player markets price Joe Burrow at 16.4 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 18 books. That is the 28th highest figure of the 183 players the books price.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Trevor Lawrence: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 94th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 22.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Joe Burrow: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 98th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 12.

This season through Week 1

Through Week 1, Trevor Lawrence has been on the field for 88 percent of JAX snaps, dropped back 24 times and thrown 10.5 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 3 of 24 dropbacks.

In Week 1 against CLE he completed 18 of 23 passes for 245 yards, threw 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 2 times for 3 yards.

Through Week 1, Joe Burrow has been on the field for 100 percent of CIN snaps, dropped back 37 times and thrown 6.5 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 6 of 37 dropbacks and scrambled 1 time.

In Week 1 against TB he completed 25 of 35 passes for 254 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 4 times for 21 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Trevor Lawrence played 17 games and scored 350.2 PPR points, 20.6 a game, finishing QB4.

He threw for 4007 yards on 560 attempts with 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and ran for 359 yards and 9 touchdowns.

That came to 32.9 attempts a game at 7.2 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Joe Burrow played 8 games and scored 139.5 PPR points, 17.4 a game, finishing QB29.

He threw for 1809 yards on 259 attempts with 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and ran for 41 yards and 0 touchdowns.

That came to 32.4 attempts a game at 7.0 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Trevor Lawrence was available for 9 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Trevor Lawrence scored 20.6 PPR points a game and Joe Burrow 17.4, 3.2 a game between them.

Trevor Lawrence finished QB4 that year and Joe Burrow QB29.

Trevor Lawrence had 301 more pass attempts than Joe Burrow, 560 to 259.

Trevor Lawrence had 2198 more passing yards than Joe Burrow, 4007 to 1809.

This season Joe Burrow holds the bigger snap share, 100 percent against 88 percent.

Their target share this season is the same, 0 percent each.

Byes and availability

Trevor Lawrence is off in Week 7 and Joe Burrow in Week 6, so either can cover the other's bye.

Joe Burrow is listed as questionable on the injury report.

What would change the answer

0.2 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.