Should I start Justin Jefferson or Nico Collins in Week 7?

The market-based projections

Justin Jefferson's market-based projection is 15.5 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 10 market sources. That is the 37th highest figure of the 207 players with a market-based projection.

Nico Collins's market-based projection is 14.8 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 10 market sources. That is the 47th highest figure of the 207 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Justin Jefferson, and the board ranks him 29th overall on the rest of his evidence.

By format he goes standard: ADP 4; 2QB: ADP 15.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Nico Collins, and the board ranks him 32nd overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season so far

Through Week 5, Justin Jefferson has been on the field for 74 percent of MIN snaps, drawn 25 percent of the targets and had 15 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 11 of the offence's 39 third down targets, had 0 of its 2 chances inside the five and seen 3 of its 10 two minute targets.

His 24 targets have averaged 11.0 air yards.

In Week 2 against CHI he caught 3 of 6 targets for 55 yards and did not score.

In Week 3 against TB he caught 2 of 2 targets for 32 yards and did not score.

In Week 5 against NO he carried 1 time for -11 yards, caught 6 of 7 targets for 79 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

Through Week 6, Nico Collins has been on the field for 71 percent of HOU snaps, drawn 23 percent of the targets and had 16 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 7 of the offence's 26 third down targets, had 0 of its 8 chances inside the five and seen 4 of its 20 two minute targets.

His 30 targets have averaged 12.9 air yards.

In Week 4 against DAL he caught 7 of 8 targets for 118 yards and scored 2 touchdowns.

In Week 5 against TEN he caught 5 of 7 targets for 56 yards and did not score.

In Week 6 against JAX he carried 1 time for 5 yards, caught 3 of 5 targets for 74 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Justin Jefferson played 17 games and scored 201.5 PPR points, 11.9 a game, finishing WR21.

He caught 84 of 141 targets for 1048 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 17 red zone targets.

That came to 8.3 targets a game, a 60 percent catch rate and 13 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Nico Collins played 15 games and scored 226.2 PPR points, 15.1 a game, finishing WR8.

He caught 71 of 120 targets for 1117 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 16 red zone targets.

That came to 8.0 targets a game, a 59 percent catch rate and 15.7 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 77 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Justin Jefferson was available for 2 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Nico Collins scored 15.1 PPR points a game and Justin Jefferson 11.9, 3.2 a game between them.

Justin Jefferson finished WR21 that year and Nico Collins WR8.

Justin Jefferson had 21 more targets than Nico Collins, 141 to 120.

Nico Collins had 69 more receiving yards than Justin Jefferson, 1117 to 1048.

This season Justin Jefferson holds the bigger snap share, 74 percent against 71 percent.

This season Justin Jefferson holds the bigger target share, 25 percent against 23 percent.

Byes and availability

Justin Jefferson is off in Week 6 and Nico Collins in Week 8, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.7 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.