Aaron Gordon vs Jakob Poeltl: who to start in Week 1
Aaron Gordon plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jakob Poeltl 3. For that week alone, start Jakob Poeltl: 75.1 projected fantasy points to 57.3 for Aaron Gordon. Over the season, Aaron Gordon leads in points leagues (28.7 fantasy points a game to 25.0) and Jakob Poeltl in 9-cat leagues (120th against 121st). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 8:57 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #100
- 28.7 FP/G, slot 9.04, $9
- 9-cat leagues
- #121
- -1.7 z, slot 11.01, $6
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #134
- 25.0 FP/G, slot 12.02, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #120
- -1.7 z, slot 10.12, $6
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Aaron Gordon. 28.7 fantasy points per game against 25.0, 100th on our board to 134th.
9-cat leagues: Jakob Poeltl instead, -1.7 in summed z-scores against -1.7 (120th to 121st), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Aaron Gordon is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Jakob Poeltl in 4 (REB, STL, BLK and FG%).
Per 36 minutes, Aaron Gordon produces more: 37.0 fantasy points to 36.4, on 27.9 minutes a night against 24.8. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Aaron Gordon plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jakob Poeltl 3. For that week alone, start Jakob Poeltl: 75.1 projected fantasy points to 57.3 for Aaron Gordon.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Aaron Gordon | Jakob Poeltl |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 28.7 | 25.0 |
| Minutes | 27.9 | 24.8 |
| PointsPTS | 16.2 | 10.2 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.8 | 7.0 |
| AssistsAST | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 49.7% | 70.3% |
| Free throw %FT% | 76.7% | 57.9% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 36 | 46 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Aaron Gordon | Jakob Poeltl |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 37.0 | 36.4 |
| Points | 20.8 | 14.9 |
| Rebounds | 7.5 | 10.1 |
| Assists | 3.4 | 2.8 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Blocks | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Threes | 2.2 | 0.0 |
| Turnovers | 1.4 | 1.7 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Aaron Gordon | Jakob Poeltl |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.1 | -1.1 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.0 | +0.5 |
| AssistsAST | -0.5 | -0.9 |
| StealsSTL | -1.2 | -0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.8 | +0.1 |
| Threes3PM | +0.1 | -1.7 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +0.2 | +2.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.4 | -1.5 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.0 | +0.9 |
| Total | -1.7 | -1.7 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, steals, blocks and field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Aaron Gordon.
| Punt | Aaron Gordon | Jakob Poeltl |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.7 (#150) | -0.7 (#92) |
| REB | -2.0 (#134) | -2.6 (#175) |
| AST | -1.3 (#116) | -0.9 (#91) |
| STL | -0.6 (#82) | -1.4 (#117) |
| BLK | -1.1 (#94) | -2.1 (#135) |
| 3PM | -1.9 (#132) | -0.1 (#66) |
| FG% | -2.3 (#132) | -4.8 (#247) |
| FT% | -1.4 (#112) | -0.2 (#70) |
| TO | -2.9 (#136) | -2.8 (#133) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Aaron Gordon: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
- Jakob Poeltl: 3 games (Wed CHI, Fri @WAS, Sun @MIN).
Recent games
- Aaron Gordon: 27.1 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 28.7 on the board.
- Jakob Poeltl: 16.2 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 25.0 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Aaron Gordon playing tonight? · Is Jakob Poeltl playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Aaron Gordon
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Aaron Gordon or Jakob Poeltl?
Points leagues: Aaron Gordon. 28.7 fantasy points per game against 25.0, 100th on our board to 134th. 9-cat leagues: Jakob Poeltl instead, -1.7 in summed z-scores against -1.7 (120th to 121st), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Aaron Gordon or Jakob Poeltl?
Category by category, Aaron Gordon is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Jakob Poeltl in 4 (REB, STL, BLK and FG%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Aaron Gordon or Jakob Poeltl?
Aaron Gordon plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jakob Poeltl 3. For that week alone, start Jakob Poeltl: 75.1 projected fantasy points to 57.3 for Aaron Gordon.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 8:57 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number