Ace Bailey vs Jakob Poeltl: who to start in Week 1
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jakob Poeltl 3. For that week alone, start Jakob Poeltl: 75.1 projected fantasy points to 74.9 for Ace Bailey. Over the season, Jakob Poeltl leads in both formats: 25.0 fantasy points a game to 25.0, and 120th against 159th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 1:54 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #135
- 25.0 FP/G, slot 12.03, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #159
- -2.7 z, slot 14.03
- Points leagues
- #134
- 25.0 FP/G, slot 12.02, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #120
- -1.7 z, slot 10.12, $6
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Jakob Poeltl. 25.0 fantasy points per game against 25.0, 134th on our board to 135th.
9-cat leagues: Jakob Poeltl again, -1.7 in summed z-scores against -2.7 (120th to 159th).
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (PTS, BLK, 3PM and FT%) and Jakob Poeltl in 4 (REB, STL, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Jakob Poeltl produces more: 36.4 fantasy points to 32.8, on 24.8 minutes a night against 27.4. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jakob Poeltl 3. For that week alone, start Jakob Poeltl: 75.1 projected fantasy points to 74.9 for Ace Bailey.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Jakob Poeltl |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Minutes | 27.4 | 24.8 |
| PointsPTS | 13.7 | 10.2 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.2 | 7.0 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 44.3% | 70.3% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.0% | 57.9% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 46 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Jakob Poeltl |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 32.8 | 36.4 |
| Points | 18.0 | 14.9 |
| Rebounds | 5.6 | 10.1 |
| Assists | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Blocks | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 1.7 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Jakob Poeltl |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -1.1 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.7 | +0.5 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -0.9 |
| StealsSTL | -0.7 | -0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Threes3PM | +0.3 | -1.7 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.9 | +2.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | -1.5 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | +0.9 |
| Total | -2.7 | -1.7 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds and field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Ace Bailey.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Jakob Poeltl |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.3 (#179) | -0.7 (#92) |
| REB | -2.1 (#138) | -2.6 (#175) |
| AST | -1.9 (#147) | -0.9 (#91) |
| STL | -2.1 (#147) | -1.4 (#117) |
| BLK | -3.1 (#177) | -2.1 (#135) |
| 3PM | -3.0 (#185) | -0.1 (#66) |
| FG% | -1.9 (#117) | -4.8 (#247) |
| FT% | -2.6 (#158) | -0.2 (#70) |
| TO | -3.3 (#146) | -2.8 (#133) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Ace Bailey: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- Jakob Poeltl: 3 games (Wed CHI, Fri @WAS, Sun @MIN).
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 30.5 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 25.0 on the board.
- Jakob Poeltl: 16.2 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 25.0 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ace Bailey playing tonight? · Is Jakob Poeltl playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ace Bailey
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ace Bailey or Jakob Poeltl?
Points leagues: Jakob Poeltl. 25.0 fantasy points per game against 25.0, 134th on our board to 135th. 9-cat leagues: Jakob Poeltl again, -1.7 in summed z-scores against -2.7 (120th to 159th).
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Jakob Poeltl?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (PTS, BLK, 3PM and FT%) and Jakob Poeltl in 4 (REB, STL, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Ace Bailey or Jakob Poeltl?
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jakob Poeltl 3. For that week alone, start Jakob Poeltl: 75.1 projected fantasy points to 74.9 for Ace Bailey.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 1:54 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number