Aaron Nesmith vs Obi Toppin: who to start in Week 3
Aaron Nesmith plays 3 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Obi Toppin 3. For that week alone, start Aaron Nesmith: 66.1 projected fantasy points to 65.8 for Obi Toppin. Over the season, Aaron Nesmith leads in points leagues (22.0 fantasy points a game to 21.9) and Obi Toppin in 9-cat leagues (172nd against 216th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Nov 3, 2:36 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #182
- 22.0 FP/G, slot 16.02
- 9-cat leagues
- #216
- -4.0 z, slot 18.12
Day to day (Rest)
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #183
- 21.9 FP/G, slot 16.03
- 9-cat leagues
- #172
- -2.9 z, slot 15.04
Day to day (Coach's Decision)
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Aaron Nesmith. 22.0 fantasy points per game against 21.9, 182nd on our board to 183rd.
9-cat leagues: Obi Toppin instead, -2.9 in summed z-scores against -4.0 (172nd to 216th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Aaron Nesmith is ahead in 5 (PTS, STL, BLK, 3PM and FT%) and Obi Toppin in 4 (REB, AST, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Obi Toppin produces more: 41.7 fantasy points to 28.6, on 18.9 minutes a night against 27.8. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Aaron Nesmith plays 3 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Obi Toppin 3. For that week alone, start Aaron Nesmith: 66.1 projected fantasy points to 65.8 for Obi Toppin.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Aaron Nesmith | Obi Toppin |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 22.0 | 21.9 |
| Minutes | 27.8 | 18.9 |
| PointsPTS | 13.3 | 12.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 3.6 | 4.6 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Threes3PM | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Field goal %FG% | 40.9% | 51.3% |
| Free throw %FT% | 84.2% | 82.5% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 45 | 24 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Aaron Nesmith | Obi Toppin |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 28.6 | 41.7 |
| Points | 17.3 | 23.8 |
| Rebounds | 4.7 | 8.8 |
| Assists | 2.4 | 3.8 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Blocks | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 1.9 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
9-category z-scores
| Category | Aaron Nesmith | Obi Toppin |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.6 | -0.7 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.0 | -0.5 |
| AssistsAST | -1.0 | -0.9 |
| StealsSTL | -1.2 | -1.6 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.5 | -1.1 |
| Threes3PM | +0.5 | +0.0 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.2 | +0.5 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.6 | +1.2 |
| Total | -4.0 | -2.9 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Aaron Nesmith.
| Punt | Aaron Nesmith | Obi Toppin |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -3.4 (#256) | -2.2 (#179) |
| REB | -3.1 (#198) | -2.5 (#166) |
| AST | -3.1 (#201) | -2.1 (#156) |
| STL | -2.8 (#181) | -1.5 (#117) |
| BLK | -3.7 (#206) | -2.1 (#136) |
| 3PM | -4.5 (#260) | -3.0 (#186) |
| FG% | -2.9 (#156) | -3.5 (#182) |
| FT% | -4.4 (#238) | -3.1 (#192) |
| TO | -4.7 (#200) | -4.3 (#184) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 438 ranked players.
Week 3 (Nov 2-8)
- Aaron Nesmith: 3 games (Mon ATL, Wed @MEM, Sat DEN), 1 back-to-back, listed DTD.
- Obi Toppin: 3 games (Mon ATL, Wed @MEM, Sat DEN), 1 back-to-back, listed DTD.
Recent games
- Aaron Nesmith: 18.3 fantasy points a game over his last 6 of 2026-27, against 22.0 on the board.
- Obi Toppin: 25.2 fantasy points a game over his last 5 of 2026-27, against 21.9 on the board.
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Aaron Nesmith playing tonight? · Is Obi Toppin playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Aaron Nesmith or Obi Toppin?
Points leagues: Aaron Nesmith. 22.0 fantasy points per game against 21.9, 182nd on our board to 183rd. 9-cat leagues: Obi Toppin instead, -2.9 in summed z-scores against -4.0 (172nd to 216th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Aaron Nesmith or Obi Toppin?
Category by category, Aaron Nesmith is ahead in 5 (PTS, STL, BLK, 3PM and FT%) and Obi Toppin in 4 (REB, AST, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 3, Aaron Nesmith or Obi Toppin?
Aaron Nesmith plays 3 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Obi Toppin 3. For that week alone, start Aaron Nesmith: 66.1 projected fantasy points to 65.8 for Obi Toppin.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Nov 3, 2026 at 2:36 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number