Aaron Nesmith vs Scoot Henderson: who to start in Week 1
Aaron Nesmith plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Scoot Henderson 2. For that week alone, start Aaron Nesmith: 68.8 projected fantasy points to 45.8 for Scoot Henderson. Over the season, Aaron Nesmith leads in both formats: 22.9 fantasy points a game to 22.9, and 207th against 243rd in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 10:27 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #154
- 22.9 FP/G, slot 13.10, $1
- 9-cat leagues
- #207
- -3.9 z, slot 18.03
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #156
- 22.9 FP/G, slot 13.12, $1
- 9-cat leagues
- #243
- -4.7 z, slot 21.03
The call
Points leagues: Aaron Nesmith. 22.9 fantasy points per game against 22.9, 154th on our board to 156th.
9-cat leagues: Aaron Nesmith again, -3.9 in summed z-scores against -4.7 (207th to 243rd).
Category by category, Aaron Nesmith is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, 3PM and TO) and Scoot Henderson in 4 (AST, STL, FG% and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Scoot Henderson produces more: 33.8 fantasy points to 28.4, on 24.4 minutes a night against 29.1. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Aaron Nesmith plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Scoot Henderson 2. For that week alone, start Aaron Nesmith: 68.8 projected fantasy points to 45.8 for Scoot Henderson.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Aaron Nesmith | Scoot Henderson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 22.9 | 22.9 |
| Minutes | 29.1 | 24.4 |
| PointsPTS | 13.5 | 13.7 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.1 | 2.5 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 3.5 |
| StealsSTL | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Threes3PM | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Field goal %FG% | 40.9% | 41.4% |
| Free throw %FT% | 80.6% | 84.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 45 | 30 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Aaron Nesmith | Scoot Henderson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 28.4 | 33.8 |
| Points | 16.7 | 20.2 |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 3.7 |
| Assists | 2.3 | 5.1 |
| Steals | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Blocks | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Threes | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| Turnovers | 1.7 | 3.5 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Aaron Nesmith | Scoot Henderson |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.7 | -1.5 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -0.1 |
| StealsSTL | -1.3 | -0.5 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.4 | -0.9 |
| Threes3PM | +0.6 | +0.1 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.4 | -1.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.1 | +0.5 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.6 | -0.6 |
| Total | -3.9 | -4.7 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Scoot Henderson.
| Punt | Aaron Nesmith | Scoot Henderson |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -3.4 (#241) | -4.2 (#289) |
| REB | -3.3 (#213) | -3.3 (#214) |
| AST | -3.1 (#199) | -4.7 (#276) |
| STL | -2.7 (#172) | -4.3 (#255) |
| BLK | -3.7 (#209) | -4.0 (#224) |
| 3PM | -4.6 (#256) | -4.8 (#266) |
| FG% | -2.6 (#145) | -3.5 (#176) |
| FT% | -4.0 (#218) | -5.2 (#266) |
| TO | -4.6 (#193) | -4.1 (#182) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Aaron Nesmith: 3 games (Wed @NOP, Fri DAL, Sun @BKN).
- Scoot Henderson: 2 games (Wed PHX, Fri @SAC).
Recent games
- Aaron Nesmith: 14.3 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 22.9 on the board.
- Scoot Henderson: 13.0 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 22.9 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Aaron Nesmith playing tonight? · Is Scoot Henderson playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Scoot Henderson
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Aaron Nesmith or Scoot Henderson?
Points leagues: Aaron Nesmith. 22.9 fantasy points per game against 22.9, 154th on our board to 156th. 9-cat leagues: Aaron Nesmith again, -3.9 in summed z-scores against -4.7 (207th to 243rd).
Who wins more categories, Aaron Nesmith or Scoot Henderson?
Category by category, Aaron Nesmith is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, 3PM and TO) and Scoot Henderson in 4 (AST, STL, FG% and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Aaron Nesmith or Scoot Henderson?
Aaron Nesmith plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Scoot Henderson 2. For that week alone, start Aaron Nesmith: 68.8 projected fantasy points to 45.8 for Scoot Henderson.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 10:27 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number