Ace Bailey vs Dylan Harper: who to start in Week 3
Ace Bailey plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Dylan Harper 4. For that week alone, start Dylan Harper: 105.9 projected fantasy points to 105.3 for Ace Bailey. Over the season, Dylan Harper leads in points leagues (26.5 fantasy points a game to 26.3) and Ace Bailey in 9-cat leagues (137th against 152nd). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Nov 3, 12:36 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #134
- 26.3 FP/G, slot 12.02, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #137
- -2.1 z, slot 12.05, $3
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #132
- 26.5 FP/G, slot 11.12, $5
- 9-cat leagues
- #152
- -2.4 z, slot 13.08, $2
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Dylan Harper. 26.5 fantasy points per game against 26.3, 132nd on our board to 134th.
9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey instead, -2.1 in summed z-scores against -2.4 (137th to 152nd), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 3 (REB, BLK and 3PM) and Dylan Harper in 5 (AST, STL, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Dylan Harper produces more: 37.2 fantasy points to 33.2, on 25.7 minutes a night against 28.5. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Dylan Harper 4. For that week alone, start Dylan Harper: 105.9 projected fantasy points to 105.3 for Ace Bailey.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Dylan Harper |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 26.3 | 26.5 |
| Minutes | 28.5 | 25.7 |
| PointsPTS | 13.7 | 13.7 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.2 | 4.0 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 4.1 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Threes3PM | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 45.8% | 49.2% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.0% | 81.5% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 69 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Dylan Harper |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 33.2 | 37.2 |
| Points | 17.2 | 19.2 |
| Rebounds | 6.6 | 5.6 |
| Assists | 2.4 | 5.8 |
| Steals | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Blocks | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| Threes | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Turnovers | 2.0 | 2.1 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Dylan Harper |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.3 | -0.8 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | +0.2 |
| StealsSTL | -1.0 | -0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.6 | -0.9 |
| Threes3PM | +0.1 | -0.7 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.4 | +0.2 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | +0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | +0.6 |
| Total | -2.1 | -2.4 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, blocks and threes flips the 9-cat answer to Dylan Harper.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Dylan Harper |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.6 (#142) | -1.9 (#165) |
| REB | -1.9 (#133) | -1.7 (#123) |
| AST | -1.2 (#115) | -2.7 (#184) |
| STL | -1.2 (#105) | -1.9 (#141) |
| BLK | -2.9 (#172) | -1.7 (#121) |
| 3PM | -2.2 (#161) | -1.8 (#135) |
| FG% | -1.8 (#118) | -2.8 (#156) |
| FT% | -2.0 (#144) | -2.5 (#169) |
| TO | -2.7 (#133) | -3.1 (#146) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 432 ranked players.
Week 3 (Nov 2-8)
- Ace Bailey: 4 games (Mon @SAS, Wed @NOP, Fri @DAL, Sun @MIN).
- Dylan Harper: 4 games (Mon UTA, Wed DAL, Fri @SAC, Sat @POR), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 28.9 fantasy points a game over his last 7 of 2026-27, against 26.3 on the board.
- Dylan Harper: 33.4 fantasy points a game over his last 7 of 2026-27, against 26.5 on the board.
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ace Bailey playing tonight? · Is Dylan Harper playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ace Bailey or Dylan Harper?
Points leagues: Dylan Harper. 26.5 fantasy points per game against 26.3, 132nd on our board to 134th. 9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey instead, -2.1 in summed z-scores against -2.4 (137th to 152nd), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Dylan Harper?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 3 (REB, BLK and 3PM) and Dylan Harper in 5 (AST, STL, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 3, Ace Bailey or Dylan Harper?
Ace Bailey plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Dylan Harper 4. For that week alone, start Dylan Harper: 105.9 projected fantasy points to 105.3 for Ace Bailey.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Nov 3, 2026 at 12:36 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number