Ace Bailey vs Peyton Watson: who to start in Week 3
Ace Bailey plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Peyton Watson 4. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 105.3 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Peyton Watson. Over the season, Peyton Watson leads in both formats: 27.7 fantasy points a game to 26.3, and 136th against 137th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Nov 3, 12:36 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
Parlae may earn a commission from price links.
- Points leagues
- #134
- 26.3 FP/G, slot 12.02, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #137
- -2.1 z, slot 12.05, $3
- Points leagues
- #116
- 27.7 FP/G, slot 10.08, $6
- 9-cat leagues
- #136
- -2.0 z, slot 12.04, $4
Out (Hamstring)
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Peyton Watson. 27.7 fantasy points per game against 26.3, 116th on our board to 134th.
9-cat leagues: Peyton Watson again, -2.0 in summed z-scores against -2.1 (136th to 137th).
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (REB, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Peyton Watson in 3 (AST, STL and BLK).
Per 36 minutes, Peyton Watson produces more: 34.0 fantasy points to 33.2, on 29.3 minutes a night against 28.5. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Ace Bailey plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Peyton Watson 4. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 105.3 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Peyton Watson.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Peyton Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 26.3 | 27.7 |
| Minutes | 28.5 | 29.3 |
| PointsPTS | 13.7 | 13.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.2 | 4.6 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Threes3PM | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Field goal %FG% | 45.8% | 45.7% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.0% | 74.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 54 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Peyton Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 33.2 | 34.0 |
| Points | 17.2 | 16.6 |
| Rebounds | 6.6 | 5.7 |
| Assists | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| Steals | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Blocks | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Threes | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Turnovers | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Peyton Watson |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.3 | -0.5 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -0.7 |
| StealsSTL | -1.0 | -0.2 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.6 | +1.3 |
| Threes3PM | +0.1 | -0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | -0.6 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | +0.1 |
| Total | -2.1 | -2.0 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting assists, steals, blocks and field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Ace Bailey.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Peyton Watson |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.6 (#142) | -1.5 (#139) |
| REB | -1.9 (#133) | -1.7 (#122) |
| AST | -1.2 (#115) | -1.4 (#124) |
| STL | -1.2 (#105) | -2.0 (#145) |
| BLK | -2.9 (#172) | -3.6 (#198) |
| 3PM | -2.2 (#161) | -1.6 (#123) |
| FG% | -1.8 (#118) | -2.0 (#127) |
| FT% | -2.0 (#144) | -1.5 (#118) |
| TO | -2.7 (#133) | -2.2 (#118) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 432 ranked players.
Week 3 (Nov 2-8)
- Ace Bailey: 4 games (Mon @SAS, Wed @NOP, Fri @DAL, Sun @MIN).
- Peyton Watson: 4 games (Mon OKC, Wed @OKC, Fri PHI, Sat NYK), 1 back-to-back, listed Out.
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 28.9 fantasy points a game over his last 7 of 2026-27, against 26.3 on the board.
- Peyton Watson: 26.8 fantasy points a game over his last 6 of 2026-27, against 27.7 on the board.
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ace Bailey playing tonight? · Is Peyton Watson playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ace Bailey, Peyton Watson
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ace Bailey or Peyton Watson?
Points leagues: Peyton Watson. 27.7 fantasy points per game against 26.3, 116th on our board to 134th. 9-cat leagues: Peyton Watson again, -2.0 in summed z-scores against -2.1 (136th to 137th).
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Peyton Watson?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (REB, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Peyton Watson in 3 (AST, STL and BLK).
Who should I start in Week 3, Ace Bailey or Peyton Watson?
Ace Bailey plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Peyton Watson 4. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 105.3 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Peyton Watson.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Nov 3, 2026 at 12:36 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number