Ace Bailey vs Tobias Harris: who to start in Week 2
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Tobias Harris 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 78.3 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Tobias Harris. Over the season, Tobias Harris leads in both formats: 26.2 fantasy points a game to 26.1, and 98th against 127th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 27, 2:32 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #125
- 26.1 FP/G, slot 11.05, $6
- 9-cat leagues
- #127
- -2.0 z, slot 11.07, $4
- Points leagues
- #124
- 26.2 FP/G, slot 11.04, $6
- 9-cat leagues
- #98
- -1.2 z, slot 9.02, $9
Out (Calf)
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Tobias Harris. 26.2 fantasy points per game against 26.1, 124th on our board to 125th.
9-cat leagues: Tobias Harris again, -1.2 in summed z-scores against -2.0 (98th to 127th).
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 3 (PTS, BLK and 3PM) and Tobias Harris in 5 (AST, STL, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Ace Bailey produces more: 34.1 fantasy points to 34.0, on 27.5 minutes a night against 27.7. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Tobias Harris 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 78.3 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Tobias Harris.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Tobias Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 26.1 | 26.2 |
| Minutes | 27.5 | 27.7 |
| PointsPTS | 13.6 | 13.3 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| AssistsAST | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Threes3PM | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Field goal %FG% | 45.7% | 46.9% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.0% | 86.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 63 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Tobias Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 34.1 | 34.0 |
| Points | 17.8 | 17.2 |
| Rebounds | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| Assists | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Steals | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Blocks | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Threes | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 1.3 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Tobias Harris |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| AssistsAST | -0.8 | -0.6 |
| StealsSTL | -1.0 | -0.3 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.5 | -0.5 |
| Threes3PM | +0.2 | -0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | +0.6 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.6 | +1.1 |
| Total | -2.0 | -1.2 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Tobias Harris stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Tobias Harris |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.6 (#143) | -0.7 (#85) |
| REB | -1.9 (#127) | -1.0 (#94) |
| AST | -1.3 (#114) | -0.7 (#83) |
| STL | -1.1 (#102) | -1.0 (#94) |
| BLK | -2.6 (#159) | -0.8 (#85) |
| 3PM | -2.3 (#154) | -0.9 (#90) |
| FG% | -1.5 (#108) | -1.0 (#90) |
| FT% | -1.9 (#133) | -1.8 (#127) |
| TO | -2.6 (#123) | -2.4 (#120) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1)
- Ace Bailey: 3 games (Mon MEM, Wed SAS, Sat POR), 1 back-to-back.
- Tobias Harris: 3 games (Tue SAC, Wed @UTA, Sat MIN), 1 back-to-back, listed Out.
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 31.7 fantasy points a game over his last 4 of 2026-27, against 26.1 on the board.
- Tobias Harris: 29.0 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 26.2 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ace Bailey playing tonight? · Is Tobias Harris playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ace Bailey, Tobias Harris
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ace Bailey or Tobias Harris?
Points leagues: Tobias Harris. 26.2 fantasy points per game against 26.1, 124th on our board to 125th. 9-cat leagues: Tobias Harris again, -1.2 in summed z-scores against -2.0 (98th to 127th).
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Tobias Harris?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 3 (PTS, BLK and 3PM) and Tobias Harris in 5 (AST, STL, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 2, Ace Bailey or Tobias Harris?
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Tobias Harris 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 78.3 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Tobias Harris.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 27, 2026 at 2:32 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number