Ajay Mitchell vs Franz Wagner: who to start in Week 1
Ajay Mitchell plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Franz Wagner 3. For that week alone, start Franz Wagner: 101.4 projected fantasy points to 77.5 for Ajay Mitchell. Over the season, Franz Wagner leads in both formats: 33.8 fantasy points a game to 25.8, and 96th against 98th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 25, 8:28 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #125
- 25.8 FP/G, slot 11.05, $5
- 9-cat leagues
- #98
- -1.3 z, slot 9.02, $8
- Points leagues
- #55
- 33.8 FP/G, slot 5.07, $17
- 9-cat leagues
- #96
- -1.2 z, slot 8.12, $8
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Franz Wagner. 33.8 fantasy points per game against 25.8, 55th on our board to 125th.
9-cat leagues: Franz Wagner again, -1.2 in summed z-scores against -1.3 (96th to 98th).
Category by category, Ajay Mitchell is ahead in 4 (STL, BLK, FT% and TO) and Franz Wagner in 4 (PTS, REB, 3PM and FG%).
Per 36 minutes, Franz Wagner produces more: 40.4 fantasy points to 36.4, on 30.1 minutes a night against 25.5. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Ajay Mitchell plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Franz Wagner 3. For that week alone, start Franz Wagner: 101.4 projected fantasy points to 77.5 for Ajay Mitchell.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ajay Mitchell | Franz Wagner |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 25.8 | 33.8 |
| Minutes | 25.5 | 30.1 |
| PointsPTS | 12.9 | 20.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 3.2 | 5.3 |
| AssistsAST | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| StealsSTL | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Threes3PM | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 47.2% | 48.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 87.6% | 79.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 57 | 34 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ajay Mitchell | Franz Wagner |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 36.4 | 40.4 |
| Points | 18.2 | 24.5 |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 6.3 |
| Assists | 5.0 | 4.2 |
| Steals | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Blocks | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Threes | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Turnovers | 2.1 | 2.4 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Ajay Mitchell | Franz Wagner |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.6 | +0.7 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.1 | -0.2 |
| AssistsAST | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| StealsSTL | +1.0 | -0.2 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.7 | -0.8 |
| Threes3PM | -0.7 | -0.2 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.7 | -0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | -0.2 |
| Total | -1.3 | -1.2 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, rebounds, threes and field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Ajay Mitchell.
| Punt | Ajay Mitchell | Franz Wagner |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.7 (#94) | -2.0 (#167) |
| REB | -0.2 (#60) | -1.2 (#109) |
| AST | -1.3 (#116) | -1.3 (#115) |
| STL | -2.4 (#155) | -1.1 (#101) |
| BLK | -0.7 (#81) | -0.6 (#77) |
| 3PM | -0.7 (#83) | -1.1 (#99) |
| FG% | -1.2 (#91) | -1.5 (#103) |
| FT% | -2.0 (#140) | -1.2 (#105) |
| TO | -1.9 (#103) | -1.1 (#82) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Ajay Mitchell: 3 games (Tue @SAS, Thu DEN, Sun LAC).
- Franz Wagner: 3 games (Wed ATL, Fri MIN, Sun @NYK).
Recent games
- Ajay Mitchell: 22.5 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 25.8 on the board.
- Franz Wagner: 33.2 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 33.8 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ajay Mitchell playing tonight? · Is Franz Wagner playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ajay Mitchell, Franz Wagner
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ajay Mitchell or Franz Wagner?
Points leagues: Franz Wagner. 33.8 fantasy points per game against 25.8, 55th on our board to 125th. 9-cat leagues: Franz Wagner again, -1.2 in summed z-scores against -1.3 (96th to 98th).
Who wins more categories, Ajay Mitchell or Franz Wagner?
Category by category, Ajay Mitchell is ahead in 4 (STL, BLK, FT% and TO) and Franz Wagner in 4 (PTS, REB, 3PM and FG%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Ajay Mitchell or Franz Wagner?
Ajay Mitchell plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Franz Wagner 3. For that week alone, start Franz Wagner: 101.4 projected fantasy points to 77.5 for Ajay Mitchell.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 25, 2026 at 8:28 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number