Al Horford vs Marvin Bagley III: who to start in Week 1
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Al Horford: 64.9 projected fantasy points to 44.9 for Marvin Bagley III. Over the season, Marvin Bagley III leads in points leagues (22.4 fantasy points a game to 21.6) and Al Horford in 9-cat leagues (140th against 180th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 3:54 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #181
- 21.6 FP/G, slot 16.01
- 9-cat leagues
- #140
- -2.3 z, slot 12.08, $3
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #168
- 22.4 FP/G, slot 14.12
- 9-cat leagues
- #180
- -3.2 z, slot 15.12
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 22.4 fantasy points per game against 21.6, 168th on our board to 181st.
9-cat leagues: Al Horford instead, -2.3 in summed z-scores against -3.2 (140th to 180th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Al Horford is ahead in 6 (AST, STL, BLK, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Marvin Bagley III in 3 (PTS, REB and FG%).
Per 36 minutes, Marvin Bagley III produces more: 40.3 fantasy points to 36.7, on 20.0 minutes a night against 21.3. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Al Horford: 64.9 projected fantasy points to 44.9 for Marvin Bagley III.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Al Horford | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 21.6 | 22.4 |
| Minutes | 21.3 | 20.0 |
| PointsPTS | 7.8 | 10.4 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.8 | 6.1 |
| AssistsAST | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 41.4% | 61.8% |
| Free throw %FT% | 84.6% | 66.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 45 | 60 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Al Horford | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 36.7 | 40.3 |
| Points | 13.1 | 18.8 |
| Rebounds | 8.2 | 11.0 |
| Assists | 4.3 | 2.5 |
| Steals | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Threes | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| Turnovers | 1.6 | 1.8 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Al Horford | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.5 | -1.0 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.4 | +0.1 |
| AssistsAST | -0.6 | -1.1 |
| StealsSTL | -0.9 | -1.5 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.8 | +0.1 |
| Threes3PM | -0.1 | -1.2 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.8 | +1.5 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.1 | -1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.2 | +1.1 |
| Total | -2.3 | -3.2 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Marvin Bagley III.
| Punt | Al Horford | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.9 (#98) | -2.2 (#176) |
| REB | -2.0 (#131) | -3.7 (#239) |
| AST | -1.8 (#137) | -2.1 (#156) |
| STL | -1.5 (#118) | -1.8 (#130) |
| BLK | -3.3 (#186) | -3.6 (#206) |
| 3PM | -2.2 (#147) | -1.9 (#135) |
| FG% | -1.6 (#101) | -5.4 (#269) |
| FT% | -2.4 (#152) | -2.2 (#144) |
| TO | -3.6 (#162) | -4.5 (#193) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Al Horford: 3 games (Wed @LAL, Fri MEM, Sat @PHX), 1 back-to-back.
- Marvin Bagley III: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
Recent games
- Al Horford: 9.8 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 21.6 on the board.
- Marvin Bagley III: 23.7 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 22.4 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Al Horford playing tonight? · Is Marvin Bagley III playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Al Horford or Marvin Bagley III?
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 22.4 fantasy points per game against 21.6, 168th on our board to 181st. 9-cat leagues: Al Horford instead, -2.3 in summed z-scores against -3.2 (140th to 180th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Al Horford or Marvin Bagley III?
Category by category, Al Horford is ahead in 6 (AST, STL, BLK, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Marvin Bagley III in 3 (PTS, REB and FG%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Al Horford or Marvin Bagley III?
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Al Horford: 64.9 projected fantasy points to 44.9 for Marvin Bagley III.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 3:54 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number