Marvin Bagley III vs Royce O'Neale: who to start in Week 1
Marvin Bagley III plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Royce O'Neale 3. For that week alone, start Royce O'Neale: 67.1 projected fantasy points to 44.9 for Marvin Bagley III. Over the season, Marvin Bagley III leads in points leagues (22.4 fantasy points a game to 22.4) and Royce O'Neale in 9-cat leagues (119th against 180th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 1:54 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #168
- 22.4 FP/G, slot 14.12
- 9-cat leagues
- #180
- -3.2 z, slot 15.12
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #169
- 22.4 FP/G, slot 15.01
- 9-cat leagues
- #119
- -1.7 z, slot 10.11, $6
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 22.4 fantasy points per game against 22.4, 168th on our board to 169th.
9-cat leagues: Royce O'Neale instead, -1.7 in summed z-scores against -3.2 (119th to 180th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Marvin Bagley III is ahead in 5 (PTS, REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Royce O'Neale in 4 (AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Marvin Bagley III produces more: 40.3 fantasy points to 29.1, on 20.0 minutes a night against 27.7. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Marvin Bagley III plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Royce O'Neale 3. For that week alone, start Royce O'Neale: 67.1 projected fantasy points to 44.9 for Marvin Bagley III.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Marvin Bagley III | Royce O'Neale |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 22.4 | 22.4 |
| Minutes | 20.0 | 27.7 |
| PointsPTS | 10.4 | 9.7 |
| ReboundsREB | 6.1 | 4.7 |
| AssistsAST | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| StealsSTL | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Threes3PM | 0.4 | 2.7 |
| Field goal %FG% | 61.8% | 42.5% |
| Free throw %FT% | 66.0% | 71.1% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 60 | 78 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Marvin Bagley III | Royce O'Neale |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 40.3 | 29.1 |
| Points | 18.8 | 12.6 |
| Rebounds | 11.0 | 6.1 |
| Assists | 2.5 | 3.3 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Blocks | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Threes | 0.7 | 3.5 |
| Turnovers | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Marvin Bagley III | Royce O'Neale |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.0 | -1.2 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.1 | -0.5 |
| AssistsAST | -1.1 | -0.6 |
| StealsSTL | -1.5 | +0.2 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.1 | -0.5 |
| Threes3PM | -1.2 | +1.1 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.5 | -0.8 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -1.0 | -0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.1 | +0.7 |
| Total | -3.2 | -1.7 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting steals and threes flips the 9-cat answer to Marvin Bagley III.
| Punt | Marvin Bagley III | Royce O'Neale |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.2 (#176) | -0.6 (#87) |
| REB | -3.7 (#239) | -1.3 (#107) |
| AST | -2.1 (#156) | -1.2 (#109) |
| STL | -1.8 (#130) | -2.0 (#141) |
| BLK | -3.6 (#206) | -1.4 (#105) |
| 3PM | -1.9 (#135) | -2.8 (#174) |
| FG% | -5.4 (#269) | -0.9 (#84) |
| FT% | -2.2 (#144) | -1.6 (#119) |
| TO | -4.5 (#193) | -2.5 (#123) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Marvin Bagley III: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
- Royce O'Neale: 3 games (Wed @BKN, Fri ATL, Sat MIA), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Marvin Bagley III: 23.7 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 22.4 on the board.
- Royce O'Neale: 17.8 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 22.4 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Marvin Bagley III playing tonight? · Is Royce O'Neale playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Marvin Bagley III or Royce O'Neale?
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 22.4 fantasy points per game against 22.4, 168th on our board to 169th. 9-cat leagues: Royce O'Neale instead, -1.7 in summed z-scores against -3.2 (119th to 180th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Marvin Bagley III or Royce O'Neale?
Category by category, Marvin Bagley III is ahead in 5 (PTS, REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Royce O'Neale in 4 (AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Marvin Bagley III or Royce O'Neale?
Marvin Bagley III plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Royce O'Neale 3. For that week alone, start Royce O'Neale: 67.1 projected fantasy points to 44.9 for Marvin Bagley III.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 1:54 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number