Al Horford vs Pelle Larsson: who to start in Week 1
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Pelle Larsson 3. For that week alone, start Pelle Larsson: 65.2 projected fantasy points to 64.9 for Al Horford. Over the season, Pelle Larsson leads in points leagues (21.7 fantasy points a game to 21.6) and Al Horford in 9-cat leagues (140th against 210th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 8:57 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #181
- 21.6 FP/G, slot 16.01
- 9-cat leagues
- #140
- -2.3 z, slot 12.08, $3
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #179
- 21.7 FP/G, slot 15.11
- 9-cat leagues
- #210
- -3.9 z, slot 18.06
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Pelle Larsson. 21.7 fantasy points per game against 21.6, 179th on our board to 181st.
9-cat leagues: Al Horford instead, -2.3 in summed z-scores against -3.9 (140th to 210th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Al Horford is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, 3PM and TO) and Pelle Larsson in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and FG%).
Per 36 minutes, Al Horford produces more: 36.7 fantasy points to 29.8, on 21.3 minutes a night against 26.3. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Pelle Larsson 3. For that week alone, start Pelle Larsson: 65.2 projected fantasy points to 64.9 for Al Horford.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Al Horford | Pelle Larsson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 21.6 | 21.7 |
| Minutes | 21.3 | 26.3 |
| PointsPTS | 7.8 | 10.8 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| AssistsAST | 2.5 | 3.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Threes3PM | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Field goal %FG% | 41.4% | 48.7% |
| Free throw %FT% | 84.6% | 80.4% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 45 | 70 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Al Horford | Pelle Larsson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 36.7 | 29.8 |
| Points | 13.1 | 14.9 |
| Rebounds | 8.2 | 4.7 |
| Assists | 4.3 | 4.7 |
| Steals | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Blocks | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| Threes | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| Turnovers | 1.6 | 1.9 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Al Horford | Pelle Larsson |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.5 | -1.0 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.4 | -1.1 |
| AssistsAST | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| StealsSTL | -0.9 | -0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.8 | -0.8 |
| Threes3PM | -0.1 | -0.8 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.8 | +0.0 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.2 | +0.6 |
| Total | -2.3 | -3.9 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Al Horford stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Al Horford | Pelle Larsson |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.9 (#98) | -3.0 (#215) |
| REB | -2.0 (#131) | -3.1 (#198) |
| AST | -1.8 (#137) | -3.9 (#239) |
| STL | -1.5 (#118) | -3.2 (#195) |
| BLK | -3.3 (#186) | -3.3 (#187) |
| 3PM | -2.2 (#147) | -3.1 (#190) |
| FG% | -1.6 (#101) | -4.3 (#225) |
| FT% | -2.4 (#152) | -4.0 (#221) |
| TO | -3.6 (#162) | -4.7 (#200) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Al Horford: 3 games (Wed @LAL, Fri MEM, Sat @PHX), 1 back-to-back.
- Pelle Larsson: 3 games (Wed MIN, Fri DET, Sat @CHA), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Al Horford: 9.8 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 21.6 on the board.
- Pelle Larsson: 17.6 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 21.7 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Al Horford playing tonight? · Is Pelle Larsson playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Pelle Larsson
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Al Horford or Pelle Larsson?
Points leagues: Pelle Larsson. 21.7 fantasy points per game against 21.6, 179th on our board to 181st. 9-cat leagues: Al Horford instead, -2.3 in summed z-scores against -3.9 (140th to 210th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Al Horford or Pelle Larsson?
Category by category, Al Horford is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, 3PM and TO) and Pelle Larsson in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and FG%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Al Horford or Pelle Larsson?
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Pelle Larsson 3. For that week alone, start Pelle Larsson: 65.2 projected fantasy points to 64.9 for Al Horford.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 8:57 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number