Al Horford vs Sam Merrill: who to start in Week 1
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Sam Merrill 2. For that week alone, start Al Horford: 64.9 projected fantasy points to 41.9 for Sam Merrill. Over the season, Al Horford leads in both formats: 21.6 fantasy points a game to 20.9, and 140th against 142nd in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 1:54 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #181
- 21.6 FP/G, slot 16.01
- 9-cat leagues
- #140
- -2.3 z, slot 12.08, $3
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #193
- 20.9 FP/G, slot 17.01
- 9-cat leagues
- #142
- -2.3 z, slot 12.10, $3
The call
Points leagues: Al Horford. 21.6 fantasy points per game against 20.9, 181st on our board to 193rd.
9-cat leagues: Al Horford again, -2.3 in summed z-scores against -2.3 (140th to 142nd).
Category by category, Al Horford is ahead in 4 (REB, AST, STL and BLK) and Sam Merrill in 5 (PTS, 3PM, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Al Horford produces more: 36.7 fantasy points to 28.4, on 21.3 minutes a night against 26.5. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Sam Merrill 2. For that week alone, start Al Horford: 64.9 projected fantasy points to 41.9 for Sam Merrill.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Al Horford | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 21.6 | 20.9 |
| Minutes | 21.3 | 26.5 |
| PointsPTS | 7.8 | 12.8 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.8 | 2.6 |
| AssistsAST | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| Threes3PM | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 41.4% | 46.1% |
| Free throw %FT% | 84.6% | 85.5% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 45 | 52 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Al Horford | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 36.7 | 28.4 |
| Points | 13.1 | 17.3 |
| Rebounds | 8.2 | 3.5 |
| Assists | 4.3 | 3.3 |
| Steals | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Blocks | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 2.6 | 4.1 |
| Turnovers | 1.6 | 1.1 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Al Horford | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.5 | -0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.4 | -1.5 |
| AssistsAST | -0.6 | -0.6 |
| StealsSTL | -0.9 | -1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.8 | -1.1 |
| Threes3PM | -0.1 | +1.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.8 | -0.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| Total | -2.3 | -2.3 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, steals and blocks flips the 9-cat answer to Sam Merrill.
| Punt | Al Horford | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.9 (#98) | -1.8 (#151) |
| REB | -2.0 (#131) | -0.8 (#84) |
| AST | -1.8 (#137) | -1.8 (#139) |
| STL | -1.5 (#118) | -1.4 (#115) |
| BLK | -3.3 (#186) | -1.2 (#99) |
| 3PM | -2.2 (#147) | -3.8 (#221) |
| FG% | -1.6 (#101) | -1.8 (#115) |
| FT% | -2.4 (#152) | -2.7 (#164) |
| TO | -3.6 (#162) | -3.8 (#167) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Al Horford: 3 games (Wed @LAL, Fri MEM, Sat @PHX), 1 back-to-back.
- Sam Merrill: 2 games (Thu @PHI, Sat BKN).
Recent games
- Al Horford: 9.8 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 21.6 on the board.
- Sam Merrill: 24.2 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 20.9 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Al Horford playing tonight? · Is Sam Merrill playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Al Horford or Sam Merrill?
Points leagues: Al Horford. 21.6 fantasy points per game against 20.9, 181st on our board to 193rd. 9-cat leagues: Al Horford again, -2.3 in summed z-scores against -2.3 (140th to 142nd).
Who wins more categories, Al Horford or Sam Merrill?
Category by category, Al Horford is ahead in 4 (REB, AST, STL and BLK) and Sam Merrill in 5 (PTS, 3PM, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Al Horford or Sam Merrill?
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Sam Merrill 2. For that week alone, start Al Horford: 64.9 projected fantasy points to 41.9 for Sam Merrill.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 1:54 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number