Herbert Jones vs Sam Merrill: who to start in Week 1
Herbert Jones plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Sam Merrill 2. For that week alone, start Herbert Jones: 63.5 projected fantasy points to 41.9 for Sam Merrill. Over the season, Herbert Jones leads in points leagues (21.2 fantasy points a game to 20.9) and Sam Merrill in 9-cat leagues (142nd against 167th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 1:54 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #192
- 21.2 FP/G, slot 16.12
- 9-cat leagues
- #167
- -2.9 z, slot 14.11
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #193
- 20.9 FP/G, slot 17.01
- 9-cat leagues
- #142
- -2.3 z, slot 12.10, $3
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Herbert Jones. 21.2 fantasy points per game against 20.9, 192nd on our board to 193rd.
9-cat leagues: Sam Merrill instead, -2.3 in summed z-scores against -2.9 (142nd to 167th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Herbert Jones is ahead in 4 (REB, AST, STL and BLK) and Sam Merrill in 5 (PTS, 3PM, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Sam Merrill produces more: 28.4 fantasy points to 27.5, on 26.5 minutes a night against 27.6. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Herbert Jones plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Sam Merrill 2. For that week alone, start Herbert Jones: 63.5 projected fantasy points to 41.9 for Sam Merrill.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Herbert Jones | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 21.2 | 20.9 |
| Minutes | 27.6 | 26.5 |
| PointsPTS | 8.6 | 12.8 |
| ReboundsREB | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| AssistsAST | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| StealsSTL | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Threes3PM | 1.4 | 3.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 38.6% | 46.1% |
| Free throw %FT% | 80.6% | 85.5% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 56 | 52 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Herbert Jones | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 27.5 | 28.4 |
| Points | 11.2 | 17.3 |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 3.5 |
| Assists | 3.4 | 3.3 |
| Steals | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Blocks | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 1.8 | 4.1 |
| Turnovers | 1.7 | 1.1 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Herbert Jones | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.4 | -0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.1 | -1.5 |
| AssistsAST | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| StealsSTL | +1.4 | -1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.5 | -1.1 |
| Threes3PM | -0.2 | +1.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.4 | -0.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.0 | +0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.7 | +1.3 |
| Total | -2.9 | -2.3 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, threes, field goal percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Herbert Jones.
| Punt | Herbert Jones | Sam Merrill |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.6 (#134) | -1.8 (#151) |
| REB | -1.9 (#129) | -0.8 (#84) |
| AST | -2.4 (#172) | -1.8 (#139) |
| STL | -4.4 (#269) | -1.4 (#115) |
| BLK | -2.6 (#154) | -1.2 (#99) |
| 3PM | -2.7 (#170) | -3.8 (#221) |
| FG% | -1.7 (#107) | -1.8 (#115) |
| FT% | -2.9 (#171) | -2.7 (#164) |
| TO | -3.7 (#165) | -3.8 (#167) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Herbert Jones: 3 games (Wed IND, Fri @UTA, Sat @DEN), 1 back-to-back.
- Sam Merrill: 2 games (Thu @PHI, Sat BKN).
Recent games
- Herbert Jones: 9.4 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 21.2 on the board.
- Sam Merrill: 24.2 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 20.9 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Herbert Jones playing tonight? · Is Sam Merrill playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Herbert Jones or Sam Merrill?
Points leagues: Herbert Jones. 21.2 fantasy points per game against 20.9, 192nd on our board to 193rd. 9-cat leagues: Sam Merrill instead, -2.3 in summed z-scores against -2.9 (142nd to 167th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Herbert Jones or Sam Merrill?
Category by category, Herbert Jones is ahead in 4 (REB, AST, STL and BLK) and Sam Merrill in 5 (PTS, 3PM, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Herbert Jones or Sam Merrill?
Herbert Jones plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Sam Merrill 2. For that week alone, start Herbert Jones: 63.5 projected fantasy points to 41.9 for Sam Merrill.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 1:54 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number