Alex Caruso vs Keon Ellis: who to start in Week 2
Alex Caruso plays 3 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Keon Ellis 3. For that week alone, start Alex Caruso: 54.9 projected fantasy points to 48.7 for Keon Ellis. Over the season, Alex Caruso leads in both formats: 18.3 fantasy points a game to 16.2, and 174th against 181st in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 26, 12:30 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #227
- 18.3 FP/G, slot 19.11
- 9-cat leagues
- #174
- -3.0 z, slot 15.06
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #261
- 16.2 FP/G, slot 22.09
- 9-cat leagues
- #181
- -3.2 z, slot 16.01
The call
Points leagues: Alex Caruso. 18.3 fantasy points per game against 16.2, 227th on our board to 261st.
9-cat leagues: Alex Caruso again, -3.0 in summed z-scores against -3.2 (174th to 181st).
Category by category, Alex Caruso is ahead in 3 (REB, AST and FT%) and Keon Ellis in 4 (STL, BLK, 3PM and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Alex Caruso produces more: 34.8 fantasy points to 27.2, on 18.9 minutes a night against 21.5. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Alex Caruso plays 3 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Keon Ellis 3. For that week alone, start Alex Caruso: 54.9 projected fantasy points to 48.7 for Keon Ellis.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Alex Caruso | Keon Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 18.3 | 16.2 |
| Minutes | 18.9 | 21.5 |
| PointsPTS | 6.7 | 6.8 |
| ReboundsREB | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| AssistsAST | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| StealsSTL | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Threes3PM | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Field goal %FG% | 44.8% | 45.1% |
| Free throw %FT% | 79.2% | 72.9% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 56 | 72 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Alex Caruso | Keon Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 34.8 | 27.2 |
| Points | 12.8 | 11.4 |
| Rebounds | 6.2 | 3.1 |
| Assists | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| Steals | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Blocks | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Threes | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Turnovers | 1.5 | 1.1 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Alex Caruso | Keon Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.7 | -1.7 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.1 | -1.7 |
| AssistsAST | -0.7 | -1.2 |
| StealsSTL | +0.7 | +0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| Threes3PM | -0.6 | -0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.0 | -0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.4 | +1.5 |
| Total | -3.0 | -3.2 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds and assists flips the 9-cat answer to Keon Ellis.
| Punt | Alex Caruso | Keon Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.4 (#130) | -1.6 (#145) |
| REB | -2.0 (#139) | -1.6 (#120) |
| AST | -2.4 (#172) | -2.1 (#159) |
| STL | -3.8 (#225) | -4.1 (#245) |
| BLK | -2.6 (#157) | -3.3 (#183) |
| 3PM | -2.4 (#162) | -2.8 (#177) |
| FG% | -2.8 (#156) | -3.0 (#161) |
| FT% | -3.0 (#178) | -3.0 (#181) |
| TO | -4.5 (#195) | -4.8 (#206) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1)
- Alex Caruso: 3 games (Mon PHX, Wed @DAL, Sat @HOU), 1 back-to-back.
- Keon Ellis: 3 games (Tue @BOS, Fri DET, Sun @IND).
Recent games
- Alex Caruso: 27.8 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 18.3 on the board.
- Keon Ellis: 21.3 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 16.2 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Alex Caruso playing tonight? · Is Keon Ellis playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Alex Caruso or Keon Ellis?
Points leagues: Alex Caruso. 18.3 fantasy points per game against 16.2, 227th on our board to 261st. 9-cat leagues: Alex Caruso again, -3.0 in summed z-scores against -3.2 (174th to 181st).
Who wins more categories, Alex Caruso or Keon Ellis?
Category by category, Alex Caruso is ahead in 3 (REB, AST and FT%) and Keon Ellis in 4 (STL, BLK, 3PM and TO).
Who should I start in Week 2, Alex Caruso or Keon Ellis?
Alex Caruso plays 3 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Keon Ellis 3. For that week alone, start Alex Caruso: 54.9 projected fantasy points to 48.7 for Keon Ellis.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 26, 2026 at 12:30 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number