Alex Sarr vs Trey Murphy III: who to start in Week 1
Alex Sarr plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Trey Murphy III 3. For that week alone, start Trey Murphy III: 109.6 projected fantasy points to 104.7 for Alex Sarr. Over the season, Trey Murphy III leads in both formats: 36.5 fantasy points a game to 34.9, and 16th against 53rd in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 9:54 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #49
- 34.9 FP/G, slot 5.01, $19
- 9-cat leagues
- #53
- +0.3 z, slot 5.05, $17
- Points leagues
- #41
- 36.5 FP/G, slot 4.05, $21
- 9-cat leagues
- #16
- +3.2 z, slot 2.04, $33
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Trey Murphy III. 36.5 fantasy points per game against 34.9, 41st on our board to 49th.
9-cat leagues: Trey Murphy III again, +3.2 in summed z-scores against +0.3 (16th to 53rd).
Category by category, Alex Sarr is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Trey Murphy III in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Alex Sarr produces more: 46.6 fantasy points to 37.3, on 27.0 minutes a night against 35.3. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Alex Sarr plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Trey Murphy III 3. For that week alone, start Trey Murphy III: 109.6 projected fantasy points to 104.7 for Alex Sarr.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Alex Sarr | Trey Murphy III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 34.9 | 36.5 |
| Minutes | 27.0 | 35.3 |
| PointsPTS | 15.7 | 20.9 |
| ReboundsREB | 7.5 | 5.6 |
| AssistsAST | 2.7 | 3.6 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| Threes3PM | 1.0 | 3.2 |
| Field goal %FG% | 47.5% | 46.6% |
| Free throw %FT% | 69.2% | 88.8% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 48 | 66 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Alex Sarr | Trey Murphy III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 46.6 | 37.3 |
| Points | 20.9 | 21.3 |
| Rebounds | 10.0 | 5.7 |
| Assists | 3.6 | 3.7 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Blocks | 2.5 | 0.3 |
| Threes | 1.3 | 3.2 |
| Turnovers | 2.1 | 1.7 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Alex Sarr | Trey Murphy III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.1 | +0.8 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.8 | -0.1 |
| AssistsAST | -0.5 | -0.0 |
| StealsSTL | -0.7 | +1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | +2.4 | -0.7 |
| Threes3PM | -0.7 | +1.6 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.3 | -0.6 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.9 | +1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| Total | +0.3 | +3.2 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Trey Murphy III stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Alex Sarr | Trey Murphy III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +0.4 (#49) | +2.4 (#12) |
| REB | -0.7 (#80) | +3.5 (#12) |
| AST | +0.7 (#40) | +3.1 (#13) |
| STL | +0.9 (#35) | +2.1 (#23) |
| BLK | -2.4 (#146) | +4.0 (#11) |
| 3PM | +0.9 (#40) | +1.5 (#33) |
| FG% | +0.2 (#58) | +4.1 (#13) |
| FT% | +1.2 (#35) | +2.1 (#24) |
| TO | -0.1 (#62) | +3.1 (#21) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Alex Sarr: 3 games (Wed MIL, Fri TOR, Sat @CHI), 1 back-to-back.
- Trey Murphy III: 3 games (Wed IND, Fri @UTA, Sat @DEN), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Alex Sarr: 19.8 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 34.9 on the board.
- Trey Murphy III: 17.3 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 36.5 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Alex Sarr playing tonight? · Is Trey Murphy III playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Alex Sarr
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Alex Sarr or Trey Murphy III?
Points leagues: Trey Murphy III. 36.5 fantasy points per game against 34.9, 41st on our board to 49th. 9-cat leagues: Trey Murphy III again, +3.2 in summed z-scores against +0.3 (16th to 53rd).
Who wins more categories, Alex Sarr or Trey Murphy III?
Category by category, Alex Sarr is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Trey Murphy III in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Alex Sarr or Trey Murphy III?
Alex Sarr plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Trey Murphy III 3. For that week alone, start Trey Murphy III: 109.6 projected fantasy points to 104.7 for Alex Sarr.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 9:54 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number