Brice Sensabaugh vs Marvin Bagley III: who to start in Week 1
Brice Sensabaugh plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Brice Sensabaugh: 63.8 projected fantasy points to 44.9 for Marvin Bagley III. Over the season, Marvin Bagley III leads in both formats: 22.4 fantasy points a game to 21.3, and 180th against 235th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 3:54 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #190
- 21.3 FP/G, slot 16.10
- 9-cat leagues
- #235
- -4.4 z, slot 20.07
- Points leagues
- #168
- 22.4 FP/G, slot 14.12
- 9-cat leagues
- #180
- -3.2 z, slot 15.12
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 22.4 fantasy points per game against 21.3, 168th on our board to 190th.
9-cat leagues: Marvin Bagley III again, -3.2 in summed z-scores against -4.4 (180th to 235th).
Category by category, Brice Sensabaugh is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Marvin Bagley III produces more: 40.3 fantasy points to 33.4, on 20.0 minutes a night against 22.9. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Brice Sensabaugh plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Brice Sensabaugh: 63.8 projected fantasy points to 44.9 for Marvin Bagley III.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Brice Sensabaugh | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 21.3 | 22.4 |
| Minutes | 22.9 | 20.0 |
| PointsPTS | 14.1 | 10.4 |
| ReboundsREB | 3.0 | 6.1 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 45.5% | 61.8% |
| Free throw %FT% | 82.6% | 66.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 75 | 60 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Brice Sensabaugh | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 33.4 | 40.3 |
| Points | 22.1 | 18.8 |
| Rebounds | 4.7 | 11.0 |
| Assists | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Steals | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| Threes | 3.2 | 0.7 |
| Turnovers | 2.6 | 1.8 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Brice Sensabaugh | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.4 | -1.0 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.3 | +0.1 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -1.1 |
| StealsSTL | -1.0 | -1.5 |
| BlocksBLK | -1.1 | +0.1 |
| Threes3PM | +0.4 | -1.2 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.6 | +1.5 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.2 | -1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.2 | +1.1 |
| Total | -4.4 | -3.2 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Brice Sensabaugh.
| Punt | Brice Sensabaugh | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -4.0 (#272) | -2.2 (#176) |
| REB | -3.2 (#205) | -3.7 (#239) |
| AST | -3.6 (#223) | -2.1 (#156) |
| STL | -3.5 (#207) | -1.8 (#130) |
| BLK | -3.4 (#194) | -3.6 (#206) |
| 3PM | -4.8 (#268) | -1.9 (#135) |
| FG% | -3.9 (#206) | -5.4 (#269) |
| FT% | -4.7 (#250) | -2.2 (#144) |
| TO | -4.7 (#199) | -4.5 (#193) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Brice Sensabaugh: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- Marvin Bagley III: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
Recent games
- Brice Sensabaugh: 3.9 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 21.3 on the board.
- Marvin Bagley III: 23.7 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 22.4 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Brice Sensabaugh playing tonight? · Is Marvin Bagley III playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Brice Sensabaugh or Marvin Bagley III?
Points leagues: Marvin Bagley III. 22.4 fantasy points per game against 21.3, 168th on our board to 190th. 9-cat leagues: Marvin Bagley III again, -3.2 in summed z-scores against -4.4 (180th to 235th).
Who wins more categories, Brice Sensabaugh or Marvin Bagley III?
Category by category, Brice Sensabaugh is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Brice Sensabaugh or Marvin Bagley III?
Brice Sensabaugh plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Brice Sensabaugh: 63.8 projected fantasy points to 44.9 for Marvin Bagley III.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 3:54 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number