Chet Holmgren vs Ja Morant: who to draft in 2026-27
Draft Chet Holmgren in both formats: 36.3 fantasy points a game to 35.8 in points leagues, and 18th against 147th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 box scores, not ADP.
- Points leagues
- #43
- 36.3 FP/G, slot 4.07, $20
- 9-cat leagues
- #18
- +3.1 z, slot 2.06, $32
Game-time decision (Quadriceps)
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #45
- 35.8 FP/G, slot 4.09, $20
- 9-cat leagues
- #147
- -2.4 z, slot 13.03, $2
The call
Points leagues: draft Chet Holmgren. 36.3 fantasy points per game against 35.8, 43rd on our board to 45th.
9-cat leagues: Chet Holmgren again, +3.1 in summed z-scores against -2.4 (18th to 147th).
Category by category, Chet Holmgren is ahead in 5 (REB, BLK, 3PM, FG% and TO) and Ja Morant in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Ja Morant produces more: 45.3 fantasy points to 45.2, on 28.4 minutes a night against 28.9. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Ja Morant 2. For that week alone, start Chet Holmgren: 109.0 projected fantasy points to 71.5 for Ja Morant.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Chet Holmgren | Ja Morant |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 36.3 | 35.8 |
| Minutes | 28.9 | 28.4 |
| PointsPTS | 17.1 | 19.4 |
| ReboundsREB | 8.9 | 3.3 |
| AssistsAST | 1.7 | 8.1 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| Threes3PM | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 55.7% | 41.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 79.2% | 89.7% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.6 | 3.5 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 69 | 20 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Chet Holmgren | Ja Morant |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 45.2 | 45.3 |
| Points | 21.3 | 24.6 |
| Rebounds | 11.1 | 4.1 |
| Assists | 2.1 | 10.2 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Blocks | 2.4 | 0.4 |
| Threes | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 4.5 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Chet Holmgren | Ja Morant |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.1 | +0.5 |
| ReboundsREB | +1.4 | -1.2 |
| AssistsAST | -1.0 | +2.1 |
| StealsSTL | -1.1 | -0.1 |
| BlocksBLK | +2.5 | -0.8 |
| Threes3PM | -0.4 | -0.7 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.3 | -2.0 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.1 | +1.8 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.4 | -2.1 |
| Total | +3.1 | -2.4 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Chet Holmgren stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Chet Holmgren | Ja Morant |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +2.9 (#9) | -2.9 (#214) |
| REB | +1.5 (#32) | -1.3 (#104) |
| AST | +4.1 (#7) | -4.7 (#279) |
| STL | +4.1 (#9) | -2.4 (#159) |
| BLK | +0.4 (#54) | -1.7 (#117) |
| 3PM | +3.4 (#12) | -1.9 (#133) |
| FG% | +1.6 (#34) | -0.4 (#69) |
| FT% | +3.2 (#13) | -4.3 (#233) |
| TO | +2.5 (#27) | -0.3 (#68) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 406 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Chet Holmgren: 3 games (Tue @SAS, Thu DEN, Sun LAC), listed GTD.
- Ja Morant: 2 games (Wed PHX, Fri @SAC).
Recent games
- Chet Holmgren: 35.1 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 36.3 on the board.
- Ja Morant: 35.6 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 35.8 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Common questions
Should I draft Chet Holmgren or Ja Morant in 2026-27?
Points leagues: draft Chet Holmgren. 36.3 fantasy points per game against 35.8, 43rd on our board to 45th. 9-cat leagues: Chet Holmgren again, +3.1 in summed z-scores against -2.4 (18th to 147th).
Who wins more categories, Chet Holmgren or Ja Morant?
Category by category, Chet Holmgren is ahead in 5 (REB, BLK, 3PM, FG% and TO) and Ja Morant in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Chet Holmgren or Ja Morant?
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Ja Morant 2. For that week alone, start Chet Holmgren: 109.0 projected fantasy points to 71.5 for Ja Morant.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 13, 2026 at 5:20 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number