Damian Lillard vs Peyton Watson: who to start in Week 3
Damian Lillard plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Peyton Watson 4. For that week alone, start Damian Lillard: 127.5 projected fantasy points to 110.6 for Peyton Watson. Over the season, Damian Lillard leads in points leagues (31.9 fantasy points a game to 27.7) and Peyton Watson in 9-cat leagues (134th against 136th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Nov 3, 2:36 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #75
- 31.9 FP/G, slot 7.03, $13
- 9-cat leagues
- #136
- -2.0 z, slot 12.04, $4
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #117
- 27.7 FP/G, slot 10.09, $7
- 9-cat leagues
- #134
- -2.0 z, slot 12.02, $4
Day to day (Hamstring)
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Damian Lillard. 31.9 fantasy points per game against 27.7, 75th on our board to 117th.
9-cat leagues: Peyton Watson instead, -2.0 in summed z-scores against -2.0 (134th to 136th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Damian Lillard is ahead in 4 (PTS, AST, 3PM and FT%) and Peyton Watson in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Damian Lillard produces more: 39.3 fantasy points to 34.0, on 29.2 minutes a night against 29.3. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Damian Lillard plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Peyton Watson 4. For that week alone, start Damian Lillard: 127.5 projected fantasy points to 110.6 for Peyton Watson.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Damian Lillard | Peyton Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 31.9 | 27.7 |
| Minutes | 29.2 | 29.3 |
| PointsPTS | 19.3 | 13.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.3 | 4.6 |
| AssistsAST | 4.0 | 2.3 |
| StealsSTL | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| Threes3PM | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| Field goal %FG% | 39.8% | 45.7% |
| Free throw %FT% | 80.5% | 74.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 0 | 54 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Damian Lillard | Peyton Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 39.3 | 34.0 |
| Points | 23.9 | 16.6 |
| Rebounds | 5.3 | 5.7 |
| Assists | 4.9 | 2.9 |
| Steals | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Blocks | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Threes | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| Turnovers | 2.7 | 2.3 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
9-category z-scores
| Category | Damian Lillard | Peyton Watson |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.5 | -0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.6 | -0.5 |
| AssistsAST | +0.1 | -0.7 |
| StealsSTL | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| BlocksBLK | -1.0 | +1.3 |
| Threes3PM | +1.2 | -0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.8 | -0.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.1 | -0.6 |
| TurnoversTO | -0.3 | +0.1 |
| Total | -2.0 | -2.0 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, blocks, field goal percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Damian Lillard.
| Punt | Damian Lillard | Peyton Watson |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.6 (#196) | -1.5 (#135) |
| REB | -1.5 (#117) | -1.7 (#122) |
| AST | -2.3 (#164) | -1.4 (#115) |
| STL | -1.9 (#145) | -1.9 (#144) |
| BLK | -1.1 (#101) | -3.5 (#192) |
| 3PM | -3.2 (#203) | -1.6 (#122) |
| FG% | -0.4 (#69) | -2.0 (#126) |
| FT% | -2.2 (#158) | -1.4 (#114) |
| TO | -1.8 (#105) | -2.2 (#116) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 438 ranked players.
Week 3 (Nov 2-8)
- Damian Lillard: 4 games (Mon @DEN, Wed @PHX, Fri @LAL, Sat SAS), 1 back-to-back.
- Peyton Watson: 4 games (Mon OKC, Wed @OKC, Fri PHI, Sat NYK), 1 back-to-back, listed DTD.
Recent games
- Damian Lillard: 31.9 fantasy points a game over his last 6 of 2026-27, against 31.9 on the board.
- Peyton Watson: 26.8 fantasy points a game over his last 6 of 2026-27, against 27.7 on the board.
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Damian Lillard playing tonight? · Is Peyton Watson playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Peyton Watson
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Damian Lillard or Peyton Watson?
Points leagues: Damian Lillard. 31.9 fantasy points per game against 27.7, 75th on our board to 117th. 9-cat leagues: Peyton Watson instead, -2.0 in summed z-scores against -2.0 (134th to 136th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Damian Lillard or Peyton Watson?
Category by category, Damian Lillard is ahead in 4 (PTS, AST, 3PM and FT%) and Peyton Watson in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 3, Damian Lillard or Peyton Watson?
Damian Lillard plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Peyton Watson 4. For that week alone, start Damian Lillard: 127.5 projected fantasy points to 110.6 for Peyton Watson.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Nov 3, 2026 at 2:36 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number