Daniel Gafford vs John Collins: who to start in Week 1
Daniel Gafford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), John Collins 3. For that week alone, start John Collins: 73.7 projected fantasy points to 71.1 for Daniel Gafford. Over the season, John Collins leads in both formats: 24.6 fantasy points a game to 23.7, and 104th against 130th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 3:54 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #150
- 23.7 FP/G, slot 13.06, $2
- 9-cat leagues
- #130
- -2.1 z, slot 11.10, $4
- Points leagues
- #140
- 24.6 FP/G, slot 12.08, $3
- 9-cat leagues
- #104
- -1.4 z, slot 9.08, $8
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: John Collins. 24.6 fantasy points per game against 23.7, 140th on our board to 150th.
9-cat leagues: John Collins again, -1.4 in summed z-scores against -2.1 (104th to 130th).
Category by category, Daniel Gafford is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and John Collins in 4 (PTS, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Daniel Gafford produces more: 39.2 fantasy points to 32.8, on 21.7 minutes a night against 27.0. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Daniel Gafford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), John Collins 3. For that week alone, start John Collins: 73.7 projected fantasy points to 71.1 for Daniel Gafford.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Daniel Gafford | John Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 23.7 | 24.6 |
| Minutes | 21.7 | 27.0 |
| PointsPTS | 9.1 | 13.1 |
| ReboundsREB | 6.6 | 5.3 |
| AssistsAST | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Threes3PM | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| Field goal %FG% | 64.8% | 54.7% |
| Free throw %FT% | 66.8% | 76.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 55 | 69 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Daniel Gafford | John Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 39.2 | 32.8 |
| Points | 15.0 | 17.4 |
| Rebounds | 11.0 | 7.1 |
| Assists | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Steals | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Blocks | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Threes | 0.0 | 1.6 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 1.7 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Daniel Gafford | John Collins |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.3 | -0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.4 | -0.2 |
| AssistsAST | -1.3 | -1.3 |
| StealsSTL | -0.7 | -0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | +1.3 | +0.2 |
| Threes3PM | -1.7 | -0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.4 | +0.9 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -1.2 | -0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.9 | +0.7 |
| Total | -2.1 | -1.4 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Daniel Gafford.
| Punt | Daniel Gafford | John Collins |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.8 (#97) | -0.8 (#96) |
| REB | -2.9 (#185) | -1.3 (#106) |
| AST | -0.8 (#88) | -0.1 (#58) |
| STL | -1.5 (#119) | -1.1 (#95) |
| BLK | -3.8 (#217) | -1.7 (#117) |
| 3PM | -0.4 (#71) | -1.0 (#94) |
| FG% | -4.3 (#220) | -2.6 (#143) |
| FT% | -0.8 (#88) | -1.2 (#102) |
| TO | -3.2 (#144) | -2.2 (#116) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Daniel Gafford: 3 games (Wed @HOU, Fri @IND, Sat SAS), 1 back-to-back.
- John Collins: 3 games (Tue BOS, Fri @MIA, Sun @PHI).
Recent games
- Daniel Gafford: 15.1 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 23.7 on the board.
- John Collins: 19.5 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 24.6 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Daniel Gafford playing tonight? · Is John Collins playing tonight?
Rookie cards: John Collins
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Daniel Gafford or John Collins?
Points leagues: John Collins. 24.6 fantasy points per game against 23.7, 140th on our board to 150th. 9-cat leagues: John Collins again, -1.4 in summed z-scores against -2.1 (104th to 130th).
Who wins more categories, Daniel Gafford or John Collins?
Category by category, Daniel Gafford is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and John Collins in 4 (PTS, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Daniel Gafford or John Collins?
Daniel Gafford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), John Collins 3. For that week alone, start John Collins: 73.7 projected fantasy points to 71.1 for Daniel Gafford.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 3:54 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number