De'Aaron Fox vs Deni Avdija: who to start in Week 1
De'Aaron Fox plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Deni Avdija 2. For that week alone, start De'Aaron Fox: 103.5 projected fantasy points to 85.7 for Deni Avdija. Over the season, Deni Avdija leads in points leagues (42.9 fantasy points a game to 34.5) and De'Aaron Fox in 9-cat leagues (66th against 68th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 21, 6:56 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #52
- 34.5 FP/G, slot 5.04, $18
- 9-cat leagues
- #66
- -0.3 z, slot 6.06, $14
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #17
- 42.9 FP/G, slot 2.05, $31
- 9-cat leagues
- #68
- -0.3 z, slot 6.08, $14
Game-time decision (Ankle)
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Deni Avdija. 42.9 fantasy points per game against 34.5, 17th on our board to 52nd.
9-cat leagues: De'Aaron Fox instead, -0.3 in summed z-scores against -0.3 (66th to 68th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, De'Aaron Fox is ahead in 3 (STL, FG% and TO) and Deni Avdija in 6 (PTS, REB, AST, BLK, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Deni Avdija produces more: 46.3 fantasy points to 40.0, on 33.3 minutes a night against 31.0. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
De'Aaron Fox plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Deni Avdija 2. For that week alone, start De'Aaron Fox: 103.5 projected fantasy points to 85.7 for Deni Avdija.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | De'Aaron Fox | Deni Avdija |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 34.5 | 42.9 |
| Minutes | 31.0 | 33.3 |
| PointsPTS | 18.3 | 24.2 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.0 | 6.9 |
| AssistsAST | 6.2 | 6.7 |
| StealsSTL | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Threes3PM | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Field goal %FG% | 49.3% | 46.2% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.5% | 80.2% |
| TurnoversTO | 2.3 | 3.8 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 66 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | De'Aaron Fox | Deni Avdija |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 40.0 | 46.3 |
| Points | 21.2 | 26.2 |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 7.4 |
| Assists | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| Steals | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Threes | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Turnovers | 2.6 | 4.1 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | De'Aaron Fox | Deni Avdija |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.3 | +1.3 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.8 | +0.5 |
| AssistsAST | +1.3 | +1.5 |
| StealsSTL | +0.6 | -0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.9 | -0.1 |
| Threes3PM | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +0.2 | -0.6 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.5 | +0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | -0.5 | -2.5 |
| Total | -0.3 | -0.3 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting steals, field goal percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Deni Avdija.
| Punt | De'Aaron Fox | Deni Avdija |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.7 (#92) | -1.7 (#146) |
| REB | +0.4 (#53) | -1.0 (#91) |
| AST | -1.8 (#134) | -2.0 (#146) |
| STL | -1.0 (#96) | +0.3 (#55) |
| BLK | +0.5 (#48) | -0.4 (#71) |
| 3PM | -0.5 (#77) | -0.6 (#84) |
| FG% | -0.8 (#80) | -0.1 (#65) |
| FT% | +0.0 (#62) | -0.6 (#80) |
| TO | +0.2 (#55) | +2.2 (#34) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 390 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- De'Aaron Fox: 3 games (Tue OKC, Fri HOU, Sat @DAL), 1 back-to-back.
- Deni Avdija: 2 games (Wed PHX, Fri @SAC), listed GTD.
Recent games
- De'Aaron Fox: 33.9 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 34.5 on the board.
- Deni Avdija: 42.1 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 42.9 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is De'Aaron Fox playing tonight? · Is Deni Avdija playing tonight?
Rookie cards: De'Aaron Fox, Deni Avdija
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, De'Aaron Fox or Deni Avdija?
Points leagues: Deni Avdija. 42.9 fantasy points per game against 34.5, 17th on our board to 52nd. 9-cat leagues: De'Aaron Fox instead, -0.3 in summed z-scores against -0.3 (66th to 68th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, De'Aaron Fox or Deni Avdija?
Category by category, De'Aaron Fox is ahead in 3 (STL, FG% and TO) and Deni Avdija in 6 (PTS, REB, AST, BLK, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, De'Aaron Fox or Deni Avdija?
De'Aaron Fox plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Deni Avdija 2. For that week alone, start De'Aaron Fox: 103.5 projected fantasy points to 85.7 for Deni Avdija.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 21, 2026 at 6:56 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number