Deandre Ayton vs Jakob Poeltl: who to start in Week 1
Deandre Ayton plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jakob Poeltl 3. For that week alone, start Deandre Ayton: 76.7 projected fantasy points to 75.1 for Jakob Poeltl. Over the season, Deandre Ayton leads in both formats: 25.6 fantasy points a game to 25.0, and 98th against 113th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 10:27 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #129
- 25.6 FP/G, slot 11.09, $5
- 9-cat leagues
- #98
- -1.2 z, slot 9.02, $8
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #132
- 25.0 FP/G, slot 11.12, $5
- 9-cat leagues
- #113
- -1.5 z, slot 10.05, $6
The call
Points leagues: Deandre Ayton. 25.6 fantasy points per game against 25.0, 129th on our board to 132nd.
9-cat leagues: Deandre Ayton again, -1.2 in summed z-scores against -1.5 (98th to 113th).
Category by category, Deandre Ayton is ahead in 6 (PTS, REB, BLK, FG%, FT% and TO) and Jakob Poeltl in 2 (AST and STL).
Per 36 minutes, Jakob Poeltl produces more: 36.2 fantasy points to 35.7, on 24.9 minutes a night against 25.8. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Deandre Ayton plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jakob Poeltl 3. For that week alone, start Deandre Ayton: 76.7 projected fantasy points to 75.1 for Jakob Poeltl.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Deandre Ayton | Jakob Poeltl |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 25.6 | 25.0 |
| Minutes | 25.8 | 24.9 |
| PointsPTS | 11.9 | 10.0 |
| ReboundsREB | 7.6 | 7.1 |
| AssistsAST | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| StealsSTL | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 68.3% | 70.2% |
| Free throw %FT% | 63.6% | 60.2% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 46 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Deandre Ayton | Jakob Poeltl |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 35.7 | 36.2 |
| Points | 16.6 | 14.4 |
| Rebounds | 10.7 | 10.2 |
| Assists | 1.1 | 2.7 |
| Steals | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Blocks | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Threes | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Turnovers | 1.5 | 1.7 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Deandre Ayton | Jakob Poeltl |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.8 | -1.1 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.9 | +0.6 |
| AssistsAST | -1.4 | -0.9 |
| StealsSTL | -1.4 | -0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.6 | +0.1 |
| Threes3PM | -1.7 | -1.7 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +2.6 | +2.2 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.9 | -1.3 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.0 | +0.9 |
| Total | -1.2 | -1.5 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting blocks and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Jakob Poeltl.
| Punt | Deandre Ayton | Jakob Poeltl |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.5 (#80) | -0.5 (#81) |
| REB | -2.3 (#150) | -2.5 (#163) |
| AST | +0.1 (#49) | -0.8 (#89) |
| STL | +0.1 (#59) | -1.3 (#108) |
| BLK | -2.1 (#140) | -2.0 (#130) |
| 3PM | +0.4 (#49) | +0.1 (#58) |
| FG% | -4.5 (#234) | -4.6 (#237) |
| FT% | -0.3 (#70) | -0.2 (#68) |
| TO | -2.4 (#120) | -2.6 (#129) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Deandre Ayton: 3 games (Wed MIL, Fri TOR, Sat @CHI), 1 back-to-back.
- Jakob Poeltl: 3 games (Wed CHI, Fri @WAS, Sun @MIN).
Recent games
- Deandre Ayton: 16.8 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 25.6 on the board.
- Jakob Poeltl: 20.5 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 25.0 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Deandre Ayton playing tonight? · Is Jakob Poeltl playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Deandre Ayton or Jakob Poeltl?
Points leagues: Deandre Ayton. 25.6 fantasy points per game against 25.0, 129th on our board to 132nd. 9-cat leagues: Deandre Ayton again, -1.2 in summed z-scores against -1.5 (98th to 113th).
Who wins more categories, Deandre Ayton or Jakob Poeltl?
Category by category, Deandre Ayton is ahead in 6 (PTS, REB, BLK, FG%, FT% and TO) and Jakob Poeltl in 2 (AST and STL).
Who should I start in Week 1, Deandre Ayton or Jakob Poeltl?
Deandre Ayton plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jakob Poeltl 3. For that week alone, start Deandre Ayton: 76.7 projected fantasy points to 75.1 for Jakob Poeltl.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 10:27 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number