Dennis Schröder vs Marvin Bagley III: who to start in Week 1
Dennis Schröder plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Dennis Schröder: 68.6 projected fantasy points to 44.9 for Marvin Bagley III. Over the season, Dennis Schröder leads in points leagues (22.9 fantasy points a game to 22.4) and Marvin Bagley III in 9-cat leagues (180th against 247th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 3:54 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #160
- 22.9 FP/G, slot 14.04
- 9-cat leagues
- #247
- -4.7 z, slot 21.07
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #168
- 22.4 FP/G, slot 14.12
- 9-cat leagues
- #180
- -3.2 z, slot 15.12
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Dennis Schröder. 22.9 fantasy points per game against 22.4, 160th on our board to 168th.
9-cat leagues: Marvin Bagley III instead, -3.2 in summed z-scores against -4.7 (180th to 247th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Dennis Schröder is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Marvin Bagley III produces more: 40.3 fantasy points to 33.1, on 20.0 minutes a night against 24.9. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Dennis Schröder plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Dennis Schröder: 68.6 projected fantasy points to 44.9 for Marvin Bagley III.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Dennis Schröder | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 22.9 | 22.4 |
| Minutes | 24.9 | 20.0 |
| PointsPTS | 11.3 | 10.4 |
| ReboundsREB | 2.8 | 6.1 |
| AssistsAST | 4.9 | 1.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 41.7% | 61.8% |
| Free throw %FT% | 85.1% | 66.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 70 | 60 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Dennis Schröder | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 33.1 | 40.3 |
| Points | 16.3 | 18.8 |
| Rebounds | 4.0 | 11.0 |
| Assists | 7.1 | 2.5 |
| Steals | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| Threes | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Turnovers | 2.7 | 1.8 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Dennis Schröder | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.9 | -1.0 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.4 | +0.1 |
| AssistsAST | +0.7 | -1.1 |
| StealsSTL | -0.8 | -1.5 |
| BlocksBLK | -1.1 | +0.1 |
| Threes3PM | -0.6 | -1.2 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.1 | +1.5 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.5 | -1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.0 | +1.1 |
| Total | -4.7 | -3.2 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds and field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Dennis Schröder.
| Punt | Dennis Schröder | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -3.8 (#266) | -2.2 (#176) |
| REB | -3.5 (#220) | -3.7 (#239) |
| AST | -5.4 (#309) | -2.1 (#156) |
| STL | -4.0 (#231) | -1.8 (#130) |
| BLK | -3.8 (#215) | -3.6 (#206) |
| 3PM | -4.1 (#228) | -1.9 (#135) |
| FG% | -3.9 (#202) | -5.4 (#269) |
| FT% | -5.2 (#266) | -2.2 (#144) |
| TO | -4.8 (#206) | -4.5 (#193) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Dennis Schröder: 3 games (Wed @BKN, Fri ATL, Sat MIA), 1 back-to-back.
- Marvin Bagley III: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
Recent games
- Dennis Schröder: 29.8 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 22.9 on the board.
- Marvin Bagley III: 23.7 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 22.4 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Dennis Schröder playing tonight? · Is Marvin Bagley III playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Dennis Schröder or Marvin Bagley III?
Points leagues: Dennis Schröder. 22.9 fantasy points per game against 22.4, 160th on our board to 168th. 9-cat leagues: Marvin Bagley III instead, -3.2 in summed z-scores against -4.7 (180th to 247th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Dennis Schröder or Marvin Bagley III?
Category by category, Dennis Schröder is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Dennis Schröder or Marvin Bagley III?
Dennis Schröder plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Dennis Schröder: 68.6 projected fantasy points to 44.9 for Marvin Bagley III.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 3:54 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number