Dru Smith vs Jaxson Hayes: who to start in Week 1
Dru Smith plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jaxson Hayes 3. For that week alone, start Jaxson Hayes: 55.1 projected fantasy points to 50.6 for Dru Smith. Over the season, Jaxson Hayes leads in both formats: 18.4 fantasy points a game to 16.9, and 196th against 198th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 1:54 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #256
- 16.9 FP/G, slot 22.04
- 9-cat leagues
- #198
- -3.7 z, slot 17.06
- Points leagues
- #228
- 18.4 FP/G, slot 19.12
- 9-cat leagues
- #196
- -3.6 z, slot 17.04
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Jaxson Hayes. 18.4 fantasy points per game against 16.9, 228th on our board to 256th.
9-cat leagues: Jaxson Hayes again, -3.6 in summed z-scores against -3.7 (196th to 198th).
Category by category, Dru Smith is ahead in 4 (AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Jaxson Hayes in 5 (PTS, REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Dru Smith produces more: 37.3 fantasy points to 35.2, on 16.3 minutes a night against 18.8. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Dru Smith plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jaxson Hayes 3. For that week alone, start Jaxson Hayes: 55.1 projected fantasy points to 50.6 for Dru Smith.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Dru Smith | Jaxson Hayes |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 16.9 | 18.4 |
| Minutes | 16.3 | 18.8 |
| PointsPTS | 5.6 | 7.4 |
| ReboundsREB | 2.5 | 4.2 |
| AssistsAST | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| StealsSTL | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| Threes3PM | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 41.5% | 75.1% |
| Free throw %FT% | 82.9% | 61.1% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 70 | 66 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Dru Smith | Jaxson Hayes |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 37.3 | 35.2 |
| Points | 12.5 | 14.1 |
| Rebounds | 5.5 | 8.0 |
| Assists | 5.7 | 2.0 |
| Steals | 3.2 | 1.0 |
| Blocks | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| Threes | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| Turnovers | 1.7 | 1.0 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Dru Smith | Jaxson Hayes |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.9 | -1.6 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.5 | -0.7 |
| AssistsAST | -0.5 | -1.3 |
| StealsSTL | +1.1 | -1.3 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.8 | +0.9 |
| Threes3PM | -1.1 | -1.6 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.5 | +1.7 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.1 | -1.4 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.4 | +1.7 |
| Total | -3.7 | -3.6 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, rebounds, blocks, field goal percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Dru Smith.
| Punt | Dru Smith | Jaxson Hayes |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.9 (#158) | -2.1 (#169) |
| REB | -2.4 (#160) | -3.3 (#214) |
| AST | -3.2 (#207) | -2.3 (#167) |
| STL | -4.9 (#292) | -2.4 (#161) |
| BLK | -3.1 (#176) | -4.9 (#271) |
| 3PM | -2.6 (#163) | -2.0 (#137) |
| FG% | -3.5 (#180) | -6.1 (#295) |
| FT% | -3.8 (#213) | -2.3 (#145) |
| TO | -5.2 (#216) | -5.6 (#233) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Dru Smith: 3 games (Wed MIN, Fri DET, Sat @CHA), 1 back-to-back.
- Jaxson Hayes: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
Recent games
- Dru Smith: 13.6 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 16.9 on the board.
- Jaxson Hayes: 38.5 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 18.4 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Dru Smith playing tonight? · Is Jaxson Hayes playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Dru Smith or Jaxson Hayes?
Points leagues: Jaxson Hayes. 18.4 fantasy points per game against 16.9, 228th on our board to 256th. 9-cat leagues: Jaxson Hayes again, -3.6 in summed z-scores against -3.7 (196th to 198th).
Who wins more categories, Dru Smith or Jaxson Hayes?
Category by category, Dru Smith is ahead in 4 (AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Jaxson Hayes in 5 (PTS, REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Dru Smith or Jaxson Hayes?
Dru Smith plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jaxson Hayes 3. For that week alone, start Jaxson Hayes: 55.1 projected fantasy points to 50.6 for Dru Smith.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 1:54 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number