Jaxson Hayes vs Keon Ellis: who to start in Week 1
Jaxson Hayes plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keon Ellis 3. For that week alone, start Jaxson Hayes: 55.1 projected fantasy points to 47.2 for Keon Ellis. Over the season, Jaxson Hayes leads in points leagues (18.4 fantasy points a game to 15.7) and Keon Ellis in 9-cat leagues (194th against 196th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 1:54 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
Parlae may earn a commission from price links.
- Points leagues
- #228
- 18.4 FP/G, slot 19.12
- 9-cat leagues
- #196
- -3.6 z, slot 17.04
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #276
- 15.7 FP/G, slot 23.12
- 9-cat leagues
- #194
- -3.6 z, slot 17.02
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Jaxson Hayes. 18.4 fantasy points per game against 15.7, 228th on our board to 276th.
9-cat leagues: Keon Ellis instead, -3.6 in summed z-scores against -3.6 (194th to 196th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Jaxson Hayes is ahead in 5 (PTS, REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Keon Ellis in 4 (AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Jaxson Hayes produces more: 35.2 fantasy points to 26.5, on 18.8 minutes a night against 21.4. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Jaxson Hayes plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keon Ellis 3. For that week alone, start Jaxson Hayes: 55.1 projected fantasy points to 47.2 for Keon Ellis.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Advertisement
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Jaxson Hayes | Keon Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 18.4 | 15.7 |
| Minutes | 18.8 | 21.4 |
| PointsPTS | 7.4 | 6.7 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| AssistsAST | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| StealsSTL | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| Field goal %FG% | 75.1% | 43.9% |
| Free throw %FT% | 61.1% | 72.9% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 66 | 72 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Jaxson Hayes | Keon Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 35.2 | 26.5 |
| Points | 14.1 | 11.3 |
| Rebounds | 8.0 | 3.2 |
| Assists | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Blocks | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Threes | 0.1 | 2.1 |
| Turnovers | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
Advertisement
9-category z-scores
| Category | Jaxson Hayes | Keon Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.6 | -1.7 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.7 | -1.8 |
| AssistsAST | -1.3 | -1.2 |
| StealsSTL | -1.3 | +0.5 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.9 | -0.0 |
| Threes3PM | -1.6 | -0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.7 | -0.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -1.4 | -0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.7 | +1.6 |
| Total | -3.6 | -3.6 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting assists, steals, threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Jaxson Hayes.
| Punt | Jaxson Hayes | Keon Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.1 (#169) | -2.0 (#163) |
| REB | -3.3 (#214) | -2.0 (#135) |
| AST | -2.3 (#167) | -2.4 (#173) |
| STL | -2.4 (#161) | -4.3 (#260) |
| BLK | -4.9 (#271) | -3.8 (#220) |
| 3PM | -2.0 (#137) | -3.2 (#194) |
| FG% | -6.1 (#295) | -3.4 (#176) |
| FT% | -2.3 (#145) | -3.4 (#190) |
| TO | -5.6 (#233) | -5.4 (#222) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Jaxson Hayes: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- Keon Ellis: 3 games (Wed CHA, Sat @CLE, Sun IND), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Jaxson Hayes: 38.5 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 18.4 on the board.
- Keon Ellis: 23.4 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 15.7 on the board.
Advertisement
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Jaxson Hayes playing tonight? · Is Keon Ellis playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Jaxson Hayes or Keon Ellis?
Points leagues: Jaxson Hayes. 18.4 fantasy points per game against 15.7, 228th on our board to 276th. 9-cat leagues: Keon Ellis instead, -3.6 in summed z-scores against -3.6 (194th to 196th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Jaxson Hayes or Keon Ellis?
Category by category, Jaxson Hayes is ahead in 5 (PTS, REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Keon Ellis in 4 (AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Jaxson Hayes or Keon Ellis?
Jaxson Hayes plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keon Ellis 3. For that week alone, start Jaxson Hayes: 55.1 projected fantasy points to 47.2 for Keon Ellis.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 1:54 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number