Herbert Jones vs Ziaire Williams: who to start in Week 1
Herbert Jones plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Ziaire Williams 3, an even 58.5 projected fantasy points each. Over the season, Ziaire Williams leads in both formats: 19.5 fantasy points a game to 19.5, and 155th against 189th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 25, 8:28 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #212
- 19.5 FP/G, slot 18.08
- 9-cat leagues
- #189
- -3.6 z, slot 16.09
- Points leagues
- #211
- 19.5 FP/G, slot 18.07
- 9-cat leagues
- #155
- -2.5 z, slot 13.11, $1
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Ziaire Williams. 19.5 fantasy points per game against 19.5, 211th on our board to 212th.
9-cat leagues: Ziaire Williams again, -2.5 in summed z-scores against -3.6 (155th to 189th).
Category by category, Herbert Jones is ahead in 3 (REB, AST and STL) and Ziaire Williams in 5 (PTS, 3PM, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Ziaire Williams produces more: 30.0 fantasy points to 26.5, on 23.4 minutes a night against 26.5. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Herbert Jones plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Ziaire Williams 3, an even 58.5 projected fantasy points each.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Herbert Jones | Ziaire Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| Minutes | 26.5 | 23.4 |
| PointsPTS | 7.9 | 10.4 |
| ReboundsREB | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| AssistsAST | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| StealsSTL | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Threes3PM | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Field goal %FG% | 38.7% | 44.8% |
| Free throw %FT% | 80.6% | 86.1% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 56 | 56 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Herbert Jones | Ziaire Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 26.5 | 30.0 |
| Points | 10.8 | 16.0 |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| Assists | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| Steals | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Blocks | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Threes | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Turnovers | 1.7 | 1.6 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Herbert Jones | Ziaire Williams |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.5 | -1.0 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.1 | -1.4 |
| AssistsAST | -0.6 | -1.2 |
| StealsSTL | +1.1 | +0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.6 | -0.6 |
| Threes3PM | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.2 | -0.5 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.0 | +0.5 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.8 | +1.0 |
| Total | -3.6 | -2.5 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Ziaire Williams stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Herbert Jones | Ziaire Williams |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.1 (#173) | -1.5 (#134) |
| REB | -2.5 (#166) | -1.1 (#106) |
| AST | -3.0 (#195) | -1.3 (#118) |
| STL | -4.7 (#281) | -3.5 (#211) |
| BLK | -3.2 (#180) | -2.1 (#139) |
| 3PM | -3.2 (#189) | -2.4 (#163) |
| FG% | -2.5 (#142) | -2.1 (#127) |
| FT% | -3.6 (#201) | -3.0 (#180) |
| TO | -4.5 (#192) | -3.6 (#162) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Herbert Jones: 3 games (Wed IND, Fri @UTA, Sat @DEN), 1 back-to-back.
- Ziaire Williams: 3 games (Wed GSW, Fri LAC, Sun @UTA).
Recent games
- Herbert Jones: 7.2 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 19.5 on the board.
- Ziaire Williams: 24.3 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 19.5 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Herbert Jones playing tonight? · Is Ziaire Williams playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Herbert Jones or Ziaire Williams?
Points leagues: Ziaire Williams. 19.5 fantasy points per game against 19.5, 211th on our board to 212th. 9-cat leagues: Ziaire Williams again, -2.5 in summed z-scores against -3.6 (155th to 189th).
Who wins more categories, Herbert Jones or Ziaire Williams?
Category by category, Herbert Jones is ahead in 3 (REB, AST and STL) and Ziaire Williams in 5 (PTS, 3PM, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Herbert Jones or Ziaire Williams?
Herbert Jones plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Ziaire Williams 3, an even 58.5 projected fantasy points each.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 25, 2026 at 8:28 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number