Jabari Smith Jr. vs Matas Buzelis: who to start in Week 1
Jabari Smith Jr. plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Matas Buzelis 3. For that week alone, start Jabari Smith Jr.: 91.7 projected fantasy points to 89.9 for Matas Buzelis. Over the season, Jabari Smith Jr. leads in both formats: 30.6 fantasy points a game to 30.0, and 52nd against 89th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 10:27 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #79
- 30.6 FP/G, slot 7.07, $13
- 9-cat leagues
- #52
- +0.2 z, slot 5.04, $17
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #80
- 30.0 FP/G, slot 7.08, $12
- 9-cat leagues
- #89
- -1.1 z, slot 8.05, $9
The call
Points leagues: Jabari Smith Jr.. 30.6 fantasy points per game against 30.0, 79th on our board to 80th.
9-cat leagues: Jabari Smith Jr. again, +0.2 in summed z-scores against -1.1 (52nd to 89th).
Category by category, Jabari Smith Jr. is ahead in 6 (PTS, REB, STL, 3PM, FG% and TO) and Matas Buzelis in 2 (AST and BLK).
Per 36 minutes, Matas Buzelis produces more: 38.2 fantasy points to 31.4, on 28.2 minutes a night against 35.1. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Jabari Smith Jr. plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Matas Buzelis 3. For that week alone, start Jabari Smith Jr.: 91.7 projected fantasy points to 89.9 for Matas Buzelis.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Jabari Smith Jr. | Matas Buzelis |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 30.6 | 30.0 |
| Minutes | 35.1 | 28.2 |
| PointsPTS | 16.1 | 15.8 |
| ReboundsREB | 6.7 | 5.8 |
| AssistsAST | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Threes3PM | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 46.4% | 44.4% |
| Free throw %FT% | 78.7% | 79.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 77 | 77 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Jabari Smith Jr. | Matas Buzelis |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 31.4 | 38.2 |
| Points | 16.5 | 20.1 |
| Rebounds | 6.8 | 7.4 |
| Assists | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Threes | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Turnovers | 1.4 | 2.7 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Jabari Smith Jr. | Matas Buzelis |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.0 | -0.1 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.4 | +0.0 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -0.8 |
| StealsSTL | -0.6 | -1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.5 | +1.7 |
| Threes3PM | +0.7 | +0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.4 | -0.8 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.6 | -0.3 |
| Total | +0.2 | -1.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Jabari Smith Jr. stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Jabari Smith Jr. | Matas Buzelis |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +0.2 (#54) | -1.0 (#110) |
| REB | -0.3 (#69) | -1.3 (#107) |
| AST | +1.0 (#35) | -0.4 (#66) |
| STL | +0.7 (#44) | -0.1 (#64) |
| BLK | -0.5 (#72) | -3.0 (#172) |
| 3PM | -0.6 (#82) | -1.5 (#112) |
| FG% | +0.6 (#49) | -0.4 (#75) |
| FT% | +0.2 (#53) | -1.1 (#97) |
| TO | -0.5 (#68) | -0.8 (#74) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Jabari Smith Jr.: 3 games (Wed DAL, Fri @SAS, Sat @ATL), 1 back-to-back.
- Matas Buzelis: 3 games (Wed @TOR, Fri @MIL, Sat WAS), 1 back-to-back.
Jabari Smith Jr. or Matas Buzelis: the Week 1 start/sit call
Recent games
- Jabari Smith Jr.: 32.0 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 30.6 on the board.
- Matas Buzelis: 22.9 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 30.0 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Jabari Smith Jr. playing tonight? · Is Matas Buzelis playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Matas Buzelis
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Jabari Smith Jr. or Matas Buzelis?
Points leagues: Jabari Smith Jr.. 30.6 fantasy points per game against 30.0, 79th on our board to 80th. 9-cat leagues: Jabari Smith Jr. again, +0.2 in summed z-scores against -1.1 (52nd to 89th).
Who wins more categories, Jabari Smith Jr. or Matas Buzelis?
Category by category, Jabari Smith Jr. is ahead in 6 (PTS, REB, STL, 3PM, FG% and TO) and Matas Buzelis in 2 (AST and BLK).
Who should I start in Week 1, Jabari Smith Jr. or Matas Buzelis?
Jabari Smith Jr. plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Matas Buzelis 3. For that week alone, start Jabari Smith Jr.: 91.7 projected fantasy points to 89.9 for Matas Buzelis.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 10:27 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number