Jabari Smith Jr. vs Julius Randle: who to start in Week 1
Jabari Smith Jr. plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Julius Randle 3. For that week alone, start Julius Randle: 116.5 projected fantasy points to 91.7 for Jabari Smith Jr.. Over the season, Julius Randle leads in points leagues (38.8 fantasy points a game to 30.6) and Jabari Smith Jr. in 9-cat leagues (52nd against 54th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 8:26 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #79
- 30.6 FP/G, slot 7.07, $13
- 9-cat leagues
- #52
- +0.2 z, slot 5.04, $17
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #35
- 38.8 FP/G, slot 3.11, $25
- 9-cat leagues
- #54
- +0.1 z, slot 5.06, $16
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Julius Randle. 38.8 fantasy points per game against 30.6, 35th on our board to 79th.
9-cat leagues: Jabari Smith Jr. instead, +0.2 in summed z-scores against +0.1 (52nd to 54th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Jabari Smith Jr. is ahead in 3 (BLK, 3PM and TO) and Julius Randle in 6 (PTS, REB, AST, STL, FG% and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Julius Randle produces more: 41.9 fantasy points to 31.4, on 33.3 minutes a night against 35.1. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Jabari Smith Jr. plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Julius Randle 3. For that week alone, start Julius Randle: 116.5 projected fantasy points to 91.7 for Jabari Smith Jr..
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Jabari Smith Jr. | Julius Randle |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 30.6 | 38.8 |
| Minutes | 35.1 | 33.3 |
| PointsPTS | 16.1 | 21.8 |
| ReboundsREB | 6.7 | 6.8 |
| AssistsAST | 1.8 | 5.2 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Threes3PM | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Field goal %FG% | 46.4% | 49.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 78.7% | 79.5% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 77 | 79 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Jabari Smith Jr. | Julius Randle |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 31.4 | 41.9 |
| Points | 16.5 | 23.6 |
| Rebounds | 6.8 | 7.4 |
| Assists | 1.8 | 5.6 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Blocks | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| Threes | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Turnovers | 1.4 | 3.0 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Jabari Smith Jr. | Julius Randle |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.0 | +1.0 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | +0.8 |
| StealsSTL | -0.6 | -0.0 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.5 | -0.9 |
| Threes3PM | +0.7 | -0.1 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.4 | +0.1 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.6 | -1.2 |
| Total | +0.2 | +0.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting blocks, threes and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Julius Randle.
| Punt | Jabari Smith Jr. | Julius Randle |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +0.2 (#54) | -0.9 (#102) |
| REB | -0.3 (#69) | -0.5 (#77) |
| AST | +1.0 (#35) | -0.8 (#88) |
| STL | +0.7 (#44) | +0.1 (#60) |
| BLK | -0.5 (#72) | +0.8 (#41) |
| 3PM | -0.6 (#82) | +0.2 (#55) |
| FG% | +0.6 (#49) | -0.4 (#72) |
| FT% | +0.2 (#53) | +0.1 (#58) |
| TO | -0.5 (#68) | +1.3 (#42) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Jabari Smith Jr.: 3 games (Wed DAL, Fri @SAS, Sat @ATL), 1 back-to-back.
- Julius Randle: 3 games (Wed CHA, Sat @CLE, Sun IND), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Jabari Smith Jr.: 32.0 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 30.6 on the board.
- Julius Randle: 52.1 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 38.8 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Jabari Smith Jr. playing tonight? · Is Julius Randle playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Julius Randle
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Jabari Smith Jr. or Julius Randle?
Points leagues: Julius Randle. 38.8 fantasy points per game against 30.6, 35th on our board to 79th. 9-cat leagues: Jabari Smith Jr. instead, +0.2 in summed z-scores against +0.1 (52nd to 54th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Jabari Smith Jr. or Julius Randle?
Category by category, Jabari Smith Jr. is ahead in 3 (BLK, 3PM and TO) and Julius Randle in 6 (PTS, REB, AST, STL, FG% and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Jabari Smith Jr. or Julius Randle?
Jabari Smith Jr. plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Julius Randle 3. For that week alone, start Julius Randle: 116.5 projected fantasy points to 91.7 for Jabari Smith Jr..
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 8:26 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number