Jabari Smith Jr. vs Ryan Rollins: who to start in Week 1
Jabari Smith Jr. plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Ryan Rollins 3. For that week alone, start Ryan Rollins: 100.0 projected fantasy points to 93.4 for Jabari Smith Jr.. Over the season, Ryan Rollins leads in both formats: 33.3 fantasy points a game to 31.1, and 54th against 55th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 2:56 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #73
- 31.1 FP/G, slot 7.01, $13
- 9-cat leagues
- #55
- +0.1 z, slot 5.07, $16
- Points leagues
- #60
- 33.3 FP/G, slot 5.12, $16
- 9-cat leagues
- #54
- +0.2 z, slot 5.06, $16
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Ryan Rollins. 33.3 fantasy points per game against 31.1, 60th on our board to 73rd.
9-cat leagues: Ryan Rollins again, +0.2 in summed z-scores against +0.1 (54th to 55th).
Category by category, Jabari Smith Jr. is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Ryan Rollins in 3 (AST, STL and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Ryan Rollins produces more: 38.0 fantasy points to 31.9, on 31.6 minutes a night against 35.2. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Jabari Smith Jr. plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Ryan Rollins 3. For that week alone, start Ryan Rollins: 100.0 projected fantasy points to 93.4 for Jabari Smith Jr..
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Jabari Smith Jr. | Ryan Rollins |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 31.1 | 33.3 |
| Minutes | 35.2 | 31.6 |
| PointsPTS | 16.7 | 16.8 |
| ReboundsREB | 6.8 | 4.7 |
| AssistsAST | 1.8 | 5.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Threes3PM | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 46.6% | 46.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 77.8% | 79.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 77 | 74 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Jabari Smith Jr. | Ryan Rollins |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 31.9 | 38.0 |
| Points | 17.1 | 19.1 |
| Rebounds | 6.9 | 5.3 |
| Assists | 1.8 | 6.2 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Blocks | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Turnovers | 1.4 | 2.9 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Jabari Smith Jr. | Ryan Rollins |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.0 | +0.1 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.4 | -0.5 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | +0.9 |
| StealsSTL | -0.6 | +1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.4 | -0.6 |
| Threes3PM | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | -0.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.7 | -0.9 |
| Total | +0.1 | +0.2 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, assists, steals, threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Jabari Smith Jr..
| Punt | Jabari Smith Jr. | Ryan Rollins |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +0.0 (#56) | +0.0 (#57) |
| REB | -0.4 (#65) | +0.7 (#42) |
| AST | +1.0 (#36) | -0.9 (#90) |
| STL | +0.7 (#42) | -1.0 (#91) |
| BLK | -0.4 (#70) | +0.8 (#42) |
| 3PM | -0.7 (#86) | -0.7 (#88) |
| FG% | +0.5 (#49) | +0.8 (#43) |
| FT% | +0.2 (#56) | +0.1 (#60) |
| TO | -0.6 (#70) | +1.1 (#47) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Jabari Smith Jr.: 3 games (Wed DAL, Fri @SAS, Sat @ATL), 1 back-to-back.
- Ryan Rollins: 3 games (Wed @WAS, Fri CHI, Sat @PHI), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Jabari Smith Jr.: 42.5 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 31.1 on the board.
- Ryan Rollins: 36.5 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 33.3 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Jabari Smith Jr. playing tonight? · Is Ryan Rollins playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ryan Rollins
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Jabari Smith Jr. or Ryan Rollins?
Points leagues: Ryan Rollins. 33.3 fantasy points per game against 31.1, 60th on our board to 73rd. 9-cat leagues: Ryan Rollins again, +0.2 in summed z-scores against +0.1 (54th to 55th).
Who wins more categories, Jabari Smith Jr. or Ryan Rollins?
Category by category, Jabari Smith Jr. is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Ryan Rollins in 3 (AST, STL and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Jabari Smith Jr. or Ryan Rollins?
Jabari Smith Jr. plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Ryan Rollins 3. For that week alone, start Ryan Rollins: 100.0 projected fantasy points to 93.4 for Jabari Smith Jr..
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 2:56 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number