Alex Sarr vs Jabari Smith Jr.: who to start in Week 1
Alex Sarr plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jabari Smith Jr. 3. For that week alone, start Alex Sarr: 104.7 projected fantasy points to 93.4 for Jabari Smith Jr.. Over the season, Alex Sarr leads in both formats: 34.9 fantasy points a game to 31.1, and 53rd against 55th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 2:56 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #49
- 34.9 FP/G, slot 5.01, $19
- 9-cat leagues
- #53
- +0.3 z, slot 5.05, $17
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #73
- 31.1 FP/G, slot 7.01, $13
- 9-cat leagues
- #55
- +0.1 z, slot 5.07, $16
The call
Points leagues: Alex Sarr. 34.9 fantasy points per game against 31.1, 49th on our board to 73rd.
9-cat leagues: Alex Sarr again, +0.3 in summed z-scores against +0.1 (53rd to 55th).
Category by category, Alex Sarr is ahead in 4 (REB, AST, BLK and FG%) and Jabari Smith Jr. in 5 (PTS, STL, 3PM, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Alex Sarr produces more: 46.6 fantasy points to 31.9, on 27.0 minutes a night against 35.2. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Alex Sarr plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jabari Smith Jr. 3. For that week alone, start Alex Sarr: 104.7 projected fantasy points to 93.4 for Jabari Smith Jr..
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Alex Sarr | Jabari Smith Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 34.9 | 31.1 |
| Minutes | 27.0 | 35.2 |
| PointsPTS | 15.7 | 16.7 |
| ReboundsREB | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| AssistsAST | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Threes3PM | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 47.5% | 46.6% |
| Free throw %FT% | 69.2% | 77.8% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 48 | 77 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Alex Sarr | Jabari Smith Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 46.6 | 31.9 |
| Points | 20.9 | 17.1 |
| Rebounds | 10.0 | 6.9 |
| Assists | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Threes | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| Turnovers | 2.1 | 1.4 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Alex Sarr | Jabari Smith Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.1 | +0.0 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.8 | +0.4 |
| AssistsAST | -0.5 | -0.9 |
| StealsSTL | -0.7 | -0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | +2.4 | +0.4 |
| Threes3PM | -0.7 | +0.8 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.3 | -0.5 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.3 | +0.7 |
| Total | +0.3 | +0.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, assists, blocks and field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Jabari Smith Jr..
| Punt | Alex Sarr | Jabari Smith Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +0.4 (#49) | +0.0 (#56) |
| REB | -0.7 (#80) | -0.4 (#65) |
| AST | +0.7 (#40) | +1.0 (#36) |
| STL | +0.9 (#35) | +0.7 (#42) |
| BLK | -2.4 (#146) | -0.4 (#70) |
| 3PM | +0.9 (#40) | -0.7 (#86) |
| FG% | +0.2 (#58) | +0.5 (#49) |
| FT% | +1.2 (#35) | +0.2 (#56) |
| TO | -0.1 (#62) | -0.6 (#70) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Alex Sarr: 3 games (Wed MIL, Fri TOR, Sat @CHI), 1 back-to-back.
- Jabari Smith Jr.: 3 games (Wed DAL, Fri @SAS, Sat @ATL), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Alex Sarr: 19.8 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 34.9 on the board.
- Jabari Smith Jr.: 42.5 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 31.1 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Alex Sarr playing tonight? · Is Jabari Smith Jr. playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Alex Sarr
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Alex Sarr or Jabari Smith Jr.?
Points leagues: Alex Sarr. 34.9 fantasy points per game against 31.1, 49th on our board to 73rd. 9-cat leagues: Alex Sarr again, +0.3 in summed z-scores against +0.1 (53rd to 55th).
Who wins more categories, Alex Sarr or Jabari Smith Jr.?
Category by category, Alex Sarr is ahead in 4 (REB, AST, BLK and FG%) and Jabari Smith Jr. in 5 (PTS, STL, 3PM, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Alex Sarr or Jabari Smith Jr.?
Alex Sarr plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jabari Smith Jr. 3. For that week alone, start Alex Sarr: 104.7 projected fantasy points to 93.4 for Jabari Smith Jr..
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 2:56 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number