Jalen Johnson vs Jimmy Butler III: who to start in Week 1
Jalen Johnson plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jimmy Butler III 3. For that week alone, start Jalen Johnson: 143.9 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Jimmy Butler III. Over the season, Jalen Johnson leads in points leagues (48.0 fantasy points a game to 37.4) and Jimmy Butler III in 9-cat leagues (18th against 19th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 4:57 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #8
- 48.0 FP/G, slot 1.08, $38
- 9-cat leagues
- #19
- +2.9 z, slot 2.07, $31
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #40
- 37.4 FP/G, slot 4.04, $22
- 9-cat leagues
- #18
- +3.1 z, slot 2.06, $32
Out (Knee)
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Jalen Johnson. 48.0 fantasy points per game against 37.4, 8th on our board to 40th.
9-cat leagues: Jimmy Butler III instead, +3.1 in summed z-scores against +2.9 (18th to 19th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Jalen Johnson is ahead in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, BLK and 3PM) and Jimmy Butler III in 4 (STL, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Jalen Johnson produces more: 49.7 fantasy points to 43.2, on 34.7 minutes a night against 31.1. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Jalen Johnson plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jimmy Butler III 3. For that week alone, start Jalen Johnson: 143.9 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Jimmy Butler III.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Jalen Johnson | Jimmy Butler III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 48.0 | 37.4 |
| Minutes | 34.7 | 31.1 |
| PointsPTS | 22.4 | 20.0 |
| ReboundsREB | 10.5 | 5.6 |
| AssistsAST | 7.7 | 4.9 |
| StealsSTL | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Threes3PM | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Field goal %FG% | 48.0% | 51.9% |
| Free throw %FT% | 79.4% | 86.4% |
| TurnoversTO | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 38 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Jalen Johnson | Jimmy Butler III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 49.7 | 43.2 |
| Points | 23.2 | 23.1 |
| Rebounds | 10.9 | 6.4 |
| Assists | 8.0 | 5.6 |
| Steals | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Blocks | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Turnovers | 3.4 | 1.8 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Jalen Johnson | Jimmy Butler III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +1.0 | +0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | +2.1 | -0.1 |
| AssistsAST | +2.1 | +0.6 |
| StealsSTL | +0.4 | +1.2 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.6 | -1.0 |
| Threes3PM | -0.1 | -0.8 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.2 | +0.6 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.1 | +1.5 |
| TurnoversTO | -1.8 | +0.4 |
| Total | +2.9 | +3.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting steals, field goal percentage, free throw percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Jalen Johnson.
| Punt | Jalen Johnson | Jimmy Butler III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +1.8 (#21) | +2.4 (#11) |
| REB | +0.6 (#44) | +3.1 (#18) |
| AST | +0.7 (#41) | +2.4 (#18) |
| STL | +2.5 (#20) | +1.8 (#25) |
| BLK | +3.3 (#15) | +4.0 (#12) |
| 3PM | +2.8 (#14) | +3.7 (#11) |
| FG% | +2.8 (#22) | +2.3 (#26) |
| FT% | +2.9 (#15) | +1.5 (#32) |
| TO | +4.7 (#13) | +2.7 (#26) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Jalen Johnson: 3 games (Wed @ORL, Fri @CHA, Sat HOU), 1 back-to-back.
- Jimmy Butler III: 3 games (Wed @LAL, Fri MEM, Sat @PHX), 1 back-to-back, listed Out.
Recent games
- Jalen Johnson: 43.8 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 48.0 on the board.
- Jimmy Butler III: 38.2 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 37.4 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Jalen Johnson playing tonight? · Is Jimmy Butler III playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Jalen Johnson
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Jalen Johnson or Jimmy Butler III?
Points leagues: Jalen Johnson. 48.0 fantasy points per game against 37.4, 8th on our board to 40th. 9-cat leagues: Jimmy Butler III instead, +3.1 in summed z-scores against +2.9 (18th to 19th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Jalen Johnson or Jimmy Butler III?
Category by category, Jalen Johnson is ahead in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, BLK and 3PM) and Jimmy Butler III in 4 (STL, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Jalen Johnson or Jimmy Butler III?
Jalen Johnson plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jimmy Butler III 3. For that week alone, start Jalen Johnson: 143.9 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Jimmy Butler III.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 4:57 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number