Chet Holmgren vs Jimmy Butler III: who to start in Week 1
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jimmy Butler III 3. For that week alone, start Chet Holmgren: 109.0 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Jimmy Butler III. Over the season, Jimmy Butler III leads in points leagues (37.4 fantasy points a game to 36.3) and Chet Holmgren in 9-cat leagues (14th against 18th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 4:57 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #42
- 36.3 FP/G, slot 4.06, $21
- 9-cat leagues
- #14
- +3.4 z, slot 2.02, $34
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #40
- 37.4 FP/G, slot 4.04, $22
- 9-cat leagues
- #18
- +3.1 z, slot 2.06, $32
Out (Knee)
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Jimmy Butler III. 37.4 fantasy points per game against 36.3, 40th on our board to 42nd.
9-cat leagues: Chet Holmgren instead, +3.4 in summed z-scores against +3.1 (14th to 18th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Chet Holmgren is ahead in 5 (REB, BLK, 3PM, FG% and TO) and Jimmy Butler III in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Chet Holmgren produces more: 45.0 fantasy points to 43.2, on 29.1 minutes a night against 31.1. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jimmy Butler III 3. For that week alone, start Chet Holmgren: 109.0 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Jimmy Butler III.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Chet Holmgren | Jimmy Butler III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 36.3 | 37.4 |
| Minutes | 29.1 | 31.1 |
| PointsPTS | 16.9 | 20.0 |
| ReboundsREB | 8.8 | 5.6 |
| AssistsAST | 1.7 | 4.9 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| Threes3PM | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Field goal %FG% | 54.9% | 51.9% |
| Free throw %FT% | 81.6% | 86.4% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 69 | 38 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Chet Holmgren | Jimmy Butler III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 45.0 | 43.2 |
| Points | 21.0 | 23.1 |
| Rebounds | 10.9 | 6.4 |
| Assists | 2.1 | 5.6 |
| Steals | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Blocks | 2.5 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 1.8 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Chet Holmgren | Jimmy Butler III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.1 | +0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | +1.4 | -0.1 |
| AssistsAST | -1.0 | +0.6 |
| StealsSTL | -1.2 | +1.2 |
| BlocksBLK | +2.8 | -1.0 |
| Threes3PM | -0.4 | -0.8 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.1 | +0.6 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.2 | +1.5 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Total | +3.4 | +3.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Jimmy Butler III.
| Punt | Chet Holmgren | Jimmy Butler III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +3.2 (#7) | +2.4 (#11) |
| REB | +1.9 (#25) | +3.1 (#18) |
| AST | +4.3 (#7) | +2.4 (#18) |
| STL | +4.5 (#6) | +1.8 (#25) |
| BLK | +0.4 (#50) | +4.0 (#12) |
| 3PM | +3.7 (#10) | +3.7 (#11) |
| FG% | +2.1 (#28) | +2.3 (#26) |
| FT% | +3.1 (#12) | +1.5 (#32) |
| TO | +2.8 (#24) | +2.7 (#26) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Chet Holmgren: 3 games (Tue @SAS, Thu DEN, Sun LAC).
- Jimmy Butler III: 3 games (Wed @LAL, Fri MEM, Sat @PHX), 1 back-to-back, listed Out.
Chet Holmgren or Jimmy Butler III: the Week 1 start/sit call
Recent games
- Chet Holmgren: 36.4 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 36.3 on the board.
- Jimmy Butler III: 38.2 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 37.4 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Chet Holmgren playing tonight? · Is Jimmy Butler III playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Chet Holmgren
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Chet Holmgren or Jimmy Butler III?
Points leagues: Jimmy Butler III. 37.4 fantasy points per game against 36.3, 40th on our board to 42nd. 9-cat leagues: Chet Holmgren instead, +3.4 in summed z-scores against +3.1 (14th to 18th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Chet Holmgren or Jimmy Butler III?
Category by category, Chet Holmgren is ahead in 5 (REB, BLK, 3PM, FG% and TO) and Jimmy Butler III in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Chet Holmgren or Jimmy Butler III?
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jimmy Butler III 3. For that week alone, start Chet Holmgren: 109.0 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Jimmy Butler III.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 4:57 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number