Jaxson Hayes vs Pelle Larsson: who to start in Week 3
Jaxson Hayes plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Pelle Larsson 4. For that week alone, start Pelle Larsson: 91.5 projected fantasy points to 79.0 for Jaxson Hayes. Over the season, Pelle Larsson leads in both formats: 22.9 fantasy points a game to 19.7, and 177th against 189th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Nov 3, 12:36 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #221
- 19.7 FP/G, slot 19.05
- 9-cat leagues
- #189
- -3.3 z, slot 16.09
- Points leagues
- #169
- 22.9 FP/G, slot 15.01
- 9-cat leagues
- #177
- -3.0 z, slot 15.09
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Pelle Larsson. 22.9 fantasy points per game against 19.7, 169th on our board to 221st.
9-cat leagues: Pelle Larsson again, -3.0 in summed z-scores against -3.3 (177th to 189th).
Category by category, Jaxson Hayes is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Pelle Larsson in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Jaxson Hayes produces more: 35.2 fantasy points to 30.2, on 20.2 minutes a night against 27.3. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Jaxson Hayes plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Pelle Larsson 4. For that week alone, start Pelle Larsson: 91.5 projected fantasy points to 79.0 for Jaxson Hayes.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Jaxson Hayes | Pelle Larsson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 19.7 | 22.9 |
| Minutes | 20.2 | 27.3 |
| PointsPTS | 7.6 | 11.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.7 | 3.5 |
| AssistsAST | 1.3 | 3.6 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| Threes3PM | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| Field goal %FG% | 71.0% | 49.4% |
| Free throw %FT% | 65.7% | 83.1% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 66 | 70 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Jaxson Hayes | Pelle Larsson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 35.2 | 30.2 |
| Points | 13.7 | 15.2 |
| Rebounds | 8.4 | 4.6 |
| Assists | 2.3 | 4.7 |
| Steals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Blocks | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| Threes | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| Turnovers | 1.2 | 1.7 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
9-category z-scores
| Category | Jaxson Hayes | Pelle Larsson |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.6 | -0.9 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.5 | -1.0 |
| AssistsAST | -1.3 | -0.1 |
| StealsSTL | -1.1 | -0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.8 | -0.9 |
| Threes3PM | -1.7 | -0.8 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.5 | +0.1 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -1.1 | +0.4 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.6 | +0.8 |
| Total | -3.3 | -3.0 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, assists, steals, threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Jaxson Hayes.
| Punt | Jaxson Hayes | Pelle Larsson |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.8 (#160) | -2.2 (#182) |
| REB | -3.2 (#202) | -2.2 (#147) |
| AST | -2.2 (#158) | -3.0 (#199) |
| STL | -2.4 (#165) | -2.5 (#170) |
| BLK | -4.6 (#253) | -2.3 (#143) |
| 3PM | -1.5 (#120) | -2.3 (#162) |
| FG% | -5.5 (#278) | -3.5 (#183) |
| FT% | -2.2 (#151) | -3.4 (#198) |
| TO | -5.3 (#217) | -4.0 (#170) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 432 ranked players.
Week 3 (Nov 2-8)
- Jaxson Hayes: 4 games (Mon @SAS, Wed @NOP, Fri @DAL, Sun @MIN).
- Pelle Larsson: 4 games (Mon @LAL, Wed @LAC, Thu @GSW, Sun @SAC), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Jaxson Hayes: 27.1 fantasy points a game over his last 6 of 2026-27, against 19.7 on the board.
- Pelle Larsson: 25.0 fantasy points a game over his last 6 of 2026-27, against 22.9 on the board.
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Jaxson Hayes playing tonight? · Is Pelle Larsson playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Pelle Larsson
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Jaxson Hayes or Pelle Larsson?
Points leagues: Pelle Larsson. 22.9 fantasy points per game against 19.7, 169th on our board to 221st. 9-cat leagues: Pelle Larsson again, -3.0 in summed z-scores against -3.3 (177th to 189th).
Who wins more categories, Jaxson Hayes or Pelle Larsson?
Category by category, Jaxson Hayes is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and Pelle Larsson in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 3, Jaxson Hayes or Pelle Larsson?
Jaxson Hayes plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Pelle Larsson 4. For that week alone, start Pelle Larsson: 91.5 projected fantasy points to 79.0 for Jaxson Hayes.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Nov 3, 2026 at 12:36 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number