Jimmy Butler III vs LaMelo Ball: who to start in Week 1
Jimmy Butler III plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), LaMelo Ball 3. For that week alone, start LaMelo Ball: 114.1 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Jimmy Butler III. Over the season, LaMelo Ball leads in points leagues (38.0 fantasy points a game to 37.4) and Jimmy Butler III in 9-cat leagues (18th against 36th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 4:57 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #40
- 37.4 FP/G, slot 4.04, $22
- 9-cat leagues
- #18
- +3.1 z, slot 2.06, $32
Out (Knee)
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #38
- 38.0 FP/G, slot 4.02, $23
- 9-cat leagues
- #36
- +1.1 z, slot 3.12, $22
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: LaMelo Ball. 38.0 fantasy points per game against 37.4, 38th on our board to 40th.
9-cat leagues: Jimmy Butler III instead, +3.1 in summed z-scores against +1.1 (18th to 36th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Jimmy Butler III is ahead in 5 (REB, STL, FG%, FT% and TO) and LaMelo Ball in 2 (AST and 3PM).
Per 36 minutes, LaMelo Ball produces more: 48.8 fantasy points to 43.2, on 28.1 minutes a night against 31.1. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Jimmy Butler III plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), LaMelo Ball 3. For that week alone, start LaMelo Ball: 114.1 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Jimmy Butler III.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Jimmy Butler III | LaMelo Ball |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 37.4 | 38.0 |
| Minutes | 31.1 | 28.1 |
| PointsPTS | 20.0 | 20.1 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.6 | 4.6 |
| AssistsAST | 4.9 | 7.1 |
| StealsSTL | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Threes3PM | 0.8 | 3.9 |
| Field goal %FG% | 51.9% | 40.7% |
| Free throw %FT% | 86.4% | 88.2% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.6 | 2.7 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 38 | 72 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Jimmy Butler III | LaMelo Ball |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 43.2 | 48.8 |
| Points | 23.1 | 25.8 |
| Rebounds | 6.4 | 6.0 |
| Assists | 5.6 | 9.1 |
| Steals | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Blocks | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Threes | 1.0 | 4.9 |
| Turnovers | 1.8 | 3.5 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Jimmy Butler III | LaMelo Ball |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.1 | -0.5 |
| AssistsAST | +0.6 | +1.7 |
| StealsSTL | +1.2 | +0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | -1.0 | -0.9 |
| Threes3PM | -0.8 | +2.3 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +0.6 | -2.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +1.5 | +0.6 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.4 | -1.1 |
| Total | +3.1 | +1.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to LaMelo Ball.
| Punt | Jimmy Butler III | LaMelo Ball |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +2.4 (#11) | +0.4 (#48) |
| REB | +3.1 (#18) | +1.8 (#26) |
| AST | +2.4 (#18) | -0.8 (#86) |
| STL | +1.8 (#25) | +0.4 (#51) |
| BLK | +4.0 (#12) | +2.2 (#24) |
| 3PM | +3.7 (#11) | -1.3 (#104) |
| FG% | +2.3 (#26) | +3.8 (#17) |
| FT% | +1.5 (#32) | +0.3 (#52) |
| TO | +2.7 (#26) | +2.3 (#32) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Jimmy Butler III: 3 games (Wed @LAL, Fri MEM, Sat @PHX), 1 back-to-back, listed Out.
- LaMelo Ball: 3 games (Wed @MIA, Fri @ORL, Sun TOR).
Recent games
- Jimmy Butler III: 38.2 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 37.4 on the board.
- LaMelo Ball: 37.4 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 38.0 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Jimmy Butler III playing tonight? · Is LaMelo Ball playing tonight?
Rookie cards: LaMelo Ball
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Jimmy Butler III or LaMelo Ball?
Points leagues: LaMelo Ball. 38.0 fantasy points per game against 37.4, 38th on our board to 40th. 9-cat leagues: Jimmy Butler III instead, +3.1 in summed z-scores against +1.1 (18th to 36th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Jimmy Butler III or LaMelo Ball?
Category by category, Jimmy Butler III is ahead in 5 (REB, STL, FG%, FT% and TO) and LaMelo Ball in 2 (AST and 3PM).
Who should I start in Week 1, Jimmy Butler III or LaMelo Ball?
Jimmy Butler III plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), LaMelo Ball 3. For that week alone, start LaMelo Ball: 114.1 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Jimmy Butler III.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 4:57 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number