Lauri Markkanen vs Paolo Banchero: who to draft in 2026-27
Draft Lauri Markkanen in both formats: 41.2 fantasy points a game to 40.8 in points leagues, and 8th against 111th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 box scores, not ADP.
- Points leagues
- #23
- 41.2 FP/G, slot 2.11, $28
- 9-cat leagues
- #8
- +4.2 z, slot 1.08, $38
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #25
- 40.8 FP/G, slot 3.01, $27
- 9-cat leagues
- #111
- -1.6 z, slot 10.03, $6
The call
Points leagues: draft Lauri Markkanen. 41.2 fantasy points per game against 40.8, 23rd on our board to 25th.
9-cat leagues: Lauri Markkanen again, +4.2 in summed z-scores against -1.6 (8th to 111th).
Category by category, Lauri Markkanen is ahead in 6 (PTS, STL, 3PM, FG%, FT% and TO) and Paolo Banchero in 3 (REB, AST and BLK).
Per 36 minutes, Lauri Markkanen produces more: 43.1 fantasy points to 42.2, on 34.4 minutes a night against 34.8. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Lauri Markkanen plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paolo Banchero 3. For that week alone, start Lauri Markkanen: 123.5 projected fantasy points to 122.3 for Paolo Banchero.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Lauri Markkanen | Paolo Banchero |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 41.2 | 40.8 |
| Minutes | 34.4 | 34.8 |
| PointsPTS | 26.7 | 22.2 |
| ReboundsREB | 6.9 | 8.4 |
| AssistsAST | 2.1 | 5.2 |
| StealsSTL | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Threes3PM | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| Field goal %FG% | 47.7% | 45.9% |
| Free throw %FT% | 89.6% | 77.5% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 3.1 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 42 | 72 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Lauri Markkanen | Paolo Banchero |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 43.1 | 42.2 |
| Points | 28.0 | 23.0 |
| Rebounds | 7.2 | 8.7 |
| Assists | 2.2 | 5.4 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Blocks | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Threes | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| Turnovers | 1.6 | 3.2 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Lauri Markkanen | Paolo Banchero |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +1.8 | +1.0 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.5 | +1.1 |
| AssistsAST | -0.8 | +0.7 |
| StealsSTL | -0.1 | -0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.4 | -0.3 |
| Threes3PM | +1.1 | -0.5 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.3 | -0.7 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +1.9 | -0.6 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | -1.5 |
| Total | +4.2 | -1.6 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Lauri Markkanen stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Lauri Markkanen | Paolo Banchero |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +2.3 (#12) | -2.7 (#202) |
| REB | +3.8 (#11) | -3.2 (#201) |
| AST | +4.8 (#6) | -2.5 (#175) |
| STL | +4.2 (#8) | -0.9 (#87) |
| BLK | +4.6 (#9) | -1.7 (#119) |
| 3PM | +2.8 (#15) | -1.2 (#100) |
| FG% | +5.0 (#8) | -1.6 (#110) |
| FT% | +2.1 (#23) | -1.1 (#100) |
| TO | +3.8 (#19) | -0.2 (#65) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 406 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Lauri Markkanen: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- Paolo Banchero: 3 games (Wed ATL, Fri MIN, Sun @NYK).
Lauri Markkanen or Paolo Banchero: the Week 1 start/sit call
Recent games
- Lauri Markkanen: 36.9 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 41.2 on the board.
- Paolo Banchero: 37.7 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 40.8 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Common questions
Should I draft Lauri Markkanen or Paolo Banchero in 2026-27?
Points leagues: draft Lauri Markkanen. 41.2 fantasy points per game against 40.8, 23rd on our board to 25th. 9-cat leagues: Lauri Markkanen again, +4.2 in summed z-scores against -1.6 (8th to 111th).
Who wins more categories, Lauri Markkanen or Paolo Banchero?
Category by category, Lauri Markkanen is ahead in 6 (PTS, STL, 3PM, FG%, FT% and TO) and Paolo Banchero in 3 (REB, AST and BLK).
Who should I start in Week 1, Lauri Markkanen or Paolo Banchero?
Lauri Markkanen plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paolo Banchero 3. For that week alone, start Lauri Markkanen: 123.5 projected fantasy points to 122.3 for Paolo Banchero.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 13, 2026 at 5:20 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number