Lauri Markkanen vs Scottie Barnes: who to start in Week 1
Lauri Markkanen plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Scottie Barnes 3. For that week alone, start Scottie Barnes: 125.0 projected fantasy points to 122.0 for Lauri Markkanen. Over the season, Scottie Barnes leads in points leagues (41.7 fantasy points a game to 40.7) and Lauri Markkanen in 9-cat leagues (11th against 12th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 8:57 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #23
- 40.7 FP/G, slot 2.11, $27
- 9-cat leagues
- #11
- +3.8 z, slot 1.11, $36
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #21
- 41.7 FP/G, slot 2.09, $29
- 9-cat leagues
- #12
- +3.6 z, slot 1.12, $35
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Scottie Barnes. 41.7 fantasy points per game against 40.7, 21st on our board to 23rd.
9-cat leagues: Lauri Markkanen instead, +3.8 in summed z-scores against +3.6 (11th to 12th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Lauri Markkanen is ahead in 4 (PTS, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Scottie Barnes in 5 (REB, AST, STL, BLK and FG%).
Per 36 minutes, Scottie Barnes produces more: 45.4 fantasy points to 42.5, on 33.0 minutes a night against 34.5. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Lauri Markkanen plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Scottie Barnes 3. For that week alone, start Scottie Barnes: 125.0 projected fantasy points to 122.0 for Lauri Markkanen.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Lauri Markkanen | Scottie Barnes |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 40.7 | 41.7 |
| Minutes | 34.5 | 33.0 |
| PointsPTS | 26.2 | 18.4 |
| ReboundsREB | 7.0 | 7.4 |
| AssistsAST | 2.2 | 5.9 |
| StealsSTL | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Threes3PM | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| Field goal %FG% | 47.0% | 50.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 89.6% | 83.3% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 42 | 80 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Lauri Markkanen | Scottie Barnes |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 42.5 | 45.4 |
| Points | 27.4 | 20.1 |
| Rebounds | 7.3 | 8.1 |
| Assists | 2.3 | 6.4 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Blocks | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Threes | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| Turnovers | 1.7 | 2.7 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Lauri Markkanen | Scottie Barnes |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +1.7 | +0.3 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.6 | +0.7 |
| AssistsAST | -0.7 | +1.1 |
| StealsSTL | -0.2 | +0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.3 | +1.4 |
| Threes3PM | +1.0 | -0.8 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.5 | +0.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +2.0 | +0.4 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.3 | -0.8 |
| Total | +3.8 | +3.6 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, threes, free throw percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Scottie Barnes.
| Punt | Lauri Markkanen | Scottie Barnes |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +2.0 (#17) | +3.2 (#8) |
| REB | +3.4 (#14) | +2.8 (#20) |
| AST | +4.4 (#6) | +2.4 (#20) |
| STL | +3.9 (#9) | +2.6 (#18) |
| BLK | +4.1 (#10) | +2.1 (#27) |
| 3PM | +2.5 (#19) | +4.2 (#7) |
| FG% | +4.7 (#9) | +3.1 (#19) |
| FT% | +1.6 (#31) | +3.1 (#11) |
| TO | +3.4 (#20) | +4.4 (#15) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Lauri Markkanen: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- Scottie Barnes: 3 games (Wed CHI, Fri @WAS, Sun @MIN).
Lauri Markkanen or Scottie Barnes: the Week 1 start/sit call
Recent games
- Lauri Markkanen: 33.3 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 40.7 on the board.
- Scottie Barnes: 36.7 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 41.7 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Lauri Markkanen playing tonight? · Is Scottie Barnes playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Scottie Barnes
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Lauri Markkanen or Scottie Barnes?
Points leagues: Scottie Barnes. 41.7 fantasy points per game against 40.7, 21st on our board to 23rd. 9-cat leagues: Lauri Markkanen instead, +3.8 in summed z-scores against +3.6 (11th to 12th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Lauri Markkanen or Scottie Barnes?
Category by category, Lauri Markkanen is ahead in 4 (PTS, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Scottie Barnes in 5 (REB, AST, STL, BLK and FG%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Lauri Markkanen or Scottie Barnes?
Lauri Markkanen plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Scottie Barnes 3. For that week alone, start Scottie Barnes: 125.0 projected fantasy points to 122.0 for Lauri Markkanen.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 8:57 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number