Chet Holmgren vs Scottie Barnes: who to start in Week 1
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Scottie Barnes 3. For that week alone, start Scottie Barnes: 125.0 projected fantasy points to 109.0 for Chet Holmgren. Over the season, Scottie Barnes leads in both formats: 41.7 fantasy points a game to 36.3, and 12th against 14th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 9:54 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #42
- 36.3 FP/G, slot 4.06, $21
- 9-cat leagues
- #14
- +3.4 z, slot 2.02, $34
- Points leagues
- #21
- 41.7 FP/G, slot 2.09, $29
- 9-cat leagues
- #12
- +3.6 z, slot 1.12, $35
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Scottie Barnes. 41.7 fantasy points per game against 36.3, 21st on our board to 42nd.
9-cat leagues: Scottie Barnes again, +3.6 in summed z-scores against +3.4 (12th to 14th).
Category by category, Chet Holmgren is ahead in 5 (REB, BLK, 3PM, FG% and TO) and Scottie Barnes in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Scottie Barnes produces more: 45.4 fantasy points to 45.0, on 33.0 minutes a night against 29.1. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Scottie Barnes 3. For that week alone, start Scottie Barnes: 125.0 projected fantasy points to 109.0 for Chet Holmgren.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Chet Holmgren | Scottie Barnes |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 36.3 | 41.7 |
| Minutes | 29.1 | 33.0 |
| PointsPTS | 16.9 | 18.4 |
| ReboundsREB | 8.8 | 7.4 |
| AssistsAST | 1.7 | 5.9 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| BlocksBLK | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Threes3PM | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Field goal %FG% | 54.9% | 50.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 81.6% | 83.3% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 69 | 80 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Chet Holmgren | Scottie Barnes |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 45.0 | 45.4 |
| Points | 21.0 | 20.1 |
| Rebounds | 10.9 | 8.1 |
| Assists | 2.1 | 6.4 |
| Steals | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Blocks | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Threes | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 2.7 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Chet Holmgren | Scottie Barnes |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| ReboundsREB | +1.4 | +0.7 |
| AssistsAST | -1.0 | +1.1 |
| StealsSTL | -1.2 | +0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | +2.8 | +1.4 |
| Threes3PM | -0.4 | -0.8 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.1 | +0.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.2 | +0.4 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.4 | -0.8 |
| Total | +3.4 | +3.6 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, assists and steals flips the 9-cat answer to Chet Holmgren.
| Punt | Chet Holmgren | Scottie Barnes |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +3.2 (#7) | +3.2 (#8) |
| REB | +1.9 (#25) | +2.8 (#20) |
| AST | +4.3 (#7) | +2.4 (#20) |
| STL | +4.5 (#6) | +2.6 (#18) |
| BLK | +0.4 (#50) | +2.1 (#27) |
| 3PM | +3.7 (#10) | +4.2 (#7) |
| FG% | +2.1 (#28) | +3.1 (#19) |
| FT% | +3.1 (#12) | +3.1 (#11) |
| TO | +2.8 (#24) | +4.4 (#15) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Chet Holmgren: 3 games (Tue @SAS, Thu DEN, Sun LAC).
- Scottie Barnes: 3 games (Wed CHI, Fri @WAS, Sun @MIN).
Recent games
- Chet Holmgren: 36.4 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 36.3 on the board.
- Scottie Barnes: 36.7 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 41.7 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Chet Holmgren playing tonight? · Is Scottie Barnes playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Chet Holmgren, Scottie Barnes
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Chet Holmgren or Scottie Barnes?
Points leagues: Scottie Barnes. 41.7 fantasy points per game against 36.3, 21st on our board to 42nd. 9-cat leagues: Scottie Barnes again, +3.6 in summed z-scores against +3.4 (12th to 14th).
Who wins more categories, Chet Holmgren or Scottie Barnes?
Category by category, Chet Holmgren is ahead in 5 (REB, BLK, 3PM, FG% and TO) and Scottie Barnes in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Chet Holmgren or Scottie Barnes?
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Scottie Barnes 3. For that week alone, start Scottie Barnes: 125.0 projected fantasy points to 109.0 for Chet Holmgren.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 9:54 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number