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Start Aaron Jones Sr. or Kenny Gainwell? Week 9

Updated Nov 4, 6:21 AM ET.

Latest

  • : Kenny Gainwell: Listed Questionable (Hip) (Sleeper injury feed)

Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Kenny Gainwell

Start

Aaron Jones Sr.

RB · MIN · vs BUF

Market projects
8.3
fantasy pts
BUF D vs RB
26.5
3rd most to RBs (2026)
Upside
Moderate
41 of 100 at RB
Snap share
32%
Through Week 8
Target share
6%
Through Week 8
Sit

Kenny Gainwell

RB · TB · at CHI

Market projects
6.0
recent weeks avg
CHI D vs RB
17.8
3rd fewest to RBs (2026)
Upside
Moderate
46 of 100 at RB
Snap share
37%
Through Week 8
Target share
9%
Through Week 8

Should I drop Kenny Gainwell for Aaron Jones Sr.?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Aaron Jones Sr. projects 115 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (12.8 a game over 9 games), Kenny Gainwell 49 (6.1 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Aaron Jones Sr. over Kenny Gainwell.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Kenny Gainwell in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Aaron Jones Sr. at 8.3 points and Kenny Gainwell at 6.0, a gap of 2.3. Aaron Jones Sr.'s number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. No player market is posted for Kenny Gainwell this week yet, so his 6.0 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6, 7 and 8 (6.5, 6.2 and 5.5); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Aaron Jones Sr. at ADP 110 and Kenny Gainwell at 95. Market coverage on Aaron Jones Sr. is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 8.3 fantasy points for Aaron Jones Sr., with 70 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Aaron Jones Sr. is 33 rushing yards and 0.4 touchdowns (6 and 8 market sources).

No Week 9 player market is posted for Kenny Gainwell yet. His market-based projections were 6.5, 6.2 and 5.6 points in Weeks 6, 7 and 8, an average of 6.1, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

The market-based projection for Kenny Gainwell is 0.2 touchdowns (10 market sources).

That puts Aaron Jones Sr. 2.3 points ahead of Kenny Gainwell on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Aaron Jones Sr. and MIN host BUF on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

BUF allowed 26.5 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 7 games, the 3rd most in the league.

Running backs ran for 81 yards and a touchdown a game against BUF and caught passes for 44 more yards.

Kenny Gainwell and TB visit CHI on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

CHI allowed 17.8 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 8 games, the 3rd fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 72 yards and 0.4 touchdowns a game against CHI and caught passes for 33 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Aaron Jones Sr. has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Aaron Jones Sr. is not on the injury report.

Kenny Gainwell is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Aaron Jones Sr. played 32 percent of MIN snaps, took 30 percent of the carries, drew 6 percent of the targets and had 20 percent of the red zone chances.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 7 against IND: 15 of 59 snaps, 8 carries for 26 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 0 yards.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 8 against DET: 21 of 53 snaps, 5 carries for 22 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 18 yards.

Through Week 8, Kenny Gainwell played 37 percent of TB snaps, took 22 percent of the carries, drew 9 percent of the targets and had 8 percent of the red zone chances.

Kenny Gainwell, Week 5 against DAL: 26 of 72 snaps, 4 carries for 18 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 10 yards.

Kenny Gainwell, Week 6 against PIT: 11 of 74 snaps, 2 carries for 17 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 7 yards.

Kenny Gainwell, Week 7 against CAR: 19 of 63 snaps, 14 carries for 88 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Kenny Gainwell, Week 8 against ATL: 30 of 60 snaps, 25 carries for 140 yards, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Aaron Jones Sr. played 12 games for MIN and scored 118.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing RB41.

He ran 132 times for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 28 of 41 targets for 199 yards.

He was on the field for 55 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 17 of 2025 against DET: 35 of 54 snaps, 18 carries for 53 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 10 yards, 1 touchdown, 15.3 PPR points.

In 2025, Kenny Gainwell played 17 games for PIT and scored 222.3 PPR points, 13.1 a game, finishing RB16.

He ran 114 times for 537 yards and 5 touchdowns, and caught 73 of 85 targets for 486 yards.

He was on the field for 49 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Kenny Gainwell for Aaron Jones Sr.?

    Yes, on the rest of the season. Aaron Jones Sr. projects 115 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (12.8 a game over 9 games), Kenny Gainwell 49 (6.1 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Aaron Jones Sr. over Kenny Gainwell.

  • Should I drop Aaron Jones Sr. for Kenny Gainwell?

    No. Keep Aaron Jones Sr.: he projects 115 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (12.8 a game over 9 games), Kenny Gainwell 49 (6.1 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Aaron Jones Sr. over Kenny Gainwell.

Should I drop Aaron Jones Sr.?

Week 9 on the board

Elsewhere on the board