Start Caleb Williams or Baker Mayfield? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 4:41 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Caleb Williams over Baker Mayfield

Start

Caleb Williams

QB · CHI · vs NE

Market projects: 18.6; fantasy pts
NE D vs QB: 14.6; 6th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: High; 97 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 96%; Through Week 6

Sit

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CAR · Questionable

Market projects: 17.4; fantasy pts
CAR D vs QB: 18.6; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 34 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 3

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Caleb Williams?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Caleb Williams projects 185 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 167 (16.7 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Caleb Williams over Baker Mayfield, 18.6 to 17.5 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Caleb Williams over Baker Mayfield in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Caleb Williams at 18.6 points and Baker Mayfield at 17.4, a gap of 1.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Caleb Williams at ADP 87 and Baker Mayfield at 133.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 18.6 fantasy points for Caleb Williams, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Caleb Williams is 245 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 20 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (11, 14, 12 and 13 market sources).

Player markets imply 17.5 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 90 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 216 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 17 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (11, 12, 4 and 12 market sources).

That puts Caleb Williams 1.2 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Caleb Williams and CHI host NE on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

NE allowed 14.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 6th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 228 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against NE, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 237 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Caleb Williams is not on the injury report.

Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable with a thumb injury.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Caleb Williams played 96 percent of CHI snaps, dropped back 111 times and threw an average of 6.4 air yards per attempt.

Caleb Williams, Week 1 against CAR: 75 of 75 snaps, 21 of 29 passes for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 10 carries for 65 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 2 against MIN: 64 of 74 snaps, 15 of 26 passes for 138 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 5 carries for 42 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 6 against ATL: 77 of 77 snaps, 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 4 yards.

Through Week 3, Baker Mayfield played 98 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 118 times and threw an average of 8.9 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Caleb Williams played 17 games for CHI and scored 325.2 PPR points, 19.1 a game, finishing QB5.

He completed 330 of 568 passes for 3942 yards, 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 77 times for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Caleb Williams?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Caleb Williams projects 185 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 167 (16.7 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Caleb Williams over Baker Mayfield, 18.6 to 17.5 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.
Should I drop Caleb Williams for Baker Mayfield?
No. Keep Caleb Williams: he projects 185 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 167 (16.7 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Caleb Williams over Baker Mayfield, 18.6 to 17.5 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.