Start C.J. Stroud or Baker Mayfield? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 3:26 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start C.J. Stroud over Baker Mayfield

Start

C.J. Stroud

QB · HOU · vs NYG

Market projects: 17.5; fantasy pts
NYG D vs QB: 21.1; 7th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: High; 91 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Sit

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CAR · Questionable

Market projects: 16.0; fantasy pts
CAR D vs QB: 18.6; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 34 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 3

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for C.J. Stroud?

Yes, on the rest of the season. C.J. Stroud projects 169 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.9 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 160 (16.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts C.J. Stroud over Baker Mayfield, 17.5 to 16.0 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

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C.J. Stroud rookie cards

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Our Week 7 call

Start C.J. Stroud over Baker Mayfield in Week 7.

Market-based projections have C.J. Stroud at 17.5 points and Baker Mayfield at 16.0, a gap of 1.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take C.J. Stroud at ADP 185 and Baker Mayfield at 133.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.0 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 216 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 17 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (12, 13, 7 and 12 market sources).

Player markets imply 17.5 fantasy points for C.J. Stroud, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for C.J. Stroud is 256 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 10 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (9, 13, 12 and 13 market sources).

That puts C.J. Stroud 1.4 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 237 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

C.J. Stroud and HOU host NYG on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

NYG allowed 21.1 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 7th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 199 yards and 2.0 touchdowns a game against NYG, with an interception a game.

By points allowed to the position, C.J. Stroud has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable with a thumb injury.

C.J. Stroud is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 3, Baker Mayfield played 98 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 118 times and threw an average of 8.9 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Through Week 6, C.J. Stroud played 100 percent of HOU snaps, dropped back 237 times and threw an average of 9.5 air yards per attempt.

C.J. Stroud, Week 3 against IND: 54 of 54 snaps, 16 of 27 passes for 167 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 10 yards.

C.J. Stroud, Week 4 against DAL: 55 of 55 snaps, 21 of 29 passes for 347 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 12 yards.

C.J. Stroud, Week 5 against TEN: 66 of 66 snaps, 26 of 34 passes for 261 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 7 yards.

C.J. Stroud, Week 6 against JAX: 63 of 63 snaps, 24 of 34 passes for 312 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 5 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, C.J. Stroud played 14 games for HOU and scored 216.5 PPR points, 15.5 a game, finishing QB21.

He completed 273 of 423 passes for 3041 yards, 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 48 times for 209 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for C.J. Stroud?
Yes, on the rest of the season. C.J. Stroud projects 169 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.9 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 160 (16.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts C.J. Stroud over Baker Mayfield, 17.5 to 16.0 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.
Should I drop C.J. Stroud for Baker Mayfield?
No. Keep C.J. Stroud: he projects 169 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.9 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 160 (16.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts C.J. Stroud over Baker Mayfield, 17.5 to 16.0 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.