Start Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield? Week 8

Updated Oct 28, 10:36 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Latest

Oct 22, 4:48 PM ET: Barring setbacks, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield expected to start vs. Panthers (ESPN)

Start Kyler Murray over Baker Mayfield

Start

Kyler Murray

QB · MIN · at DET

Market projects: 17.1; fantasy pts
DET D vs QB: 26.3; most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 51 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 84%; Through Week 7

Sit

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · vs ATL

Market projects: 16.1; fantasy pts
ATL D vs QB: 18.0; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 30 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 96%; Through Week 7

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Kyler Murray?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Kyler Murray projects 171 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.1 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Kyler Murray over Baker Mayfield, 17.1 to 16.1 projected PPR points.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Kyler Murray over Baker Mayfield in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Kyler Murray at 17.1 points and Baker Mayfield at 16.1, a gap of 1.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Baker Mayfield's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Kyler Murray at ADP 139 and Baker Mayfield at 133.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 17.1 fantasy points for Kyler Murray, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Kyler Murray is 220 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (13, 15 and 13 market sources).

Player markets imply 16.1 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 216 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (13, 13 and 13 market sources).

That puts Kyler Murray 1.0 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on the market projections.

Week 8 matchups

Kyler Murray and MIN visit DET on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

DET allowed 26.3 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 312 yards and 2.7 touchdowns a game against DET, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

Baker Mayfield and TB host ATL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

ATL allowed 18.0 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 271 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against ATL, with 0.4 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Kyler Murray has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Kyler Murray is not on the injury report.

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, Kyler Murray played 84 percent of MIN snaps, dropped back 151 times and threw an average of 6.9 air yards per attempt.

Kyler Murray, Week 3 against TB: 59 of 59 snaps, 15 of 29 passes for 168 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 17 yards.

Kyler Murray, Week 4 against MIA: 78 of 78 snaps, 27 of 37 passes for 247 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 21 yards.

Kyler Murray, Week 5 against NO: 71 of 71 snaps, 24 of 29 passes for 229 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 7 carries for 54 yards.

Kyler Murray, Week 7 against IND: 59 of 59 snaps, 14 of 24 passes for 150 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 41 yards.

Through Week 7, Baker Mayfield played 96 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 129 times and threw an average of 8.2 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 7 against CAR: 57 of 63 snaps, 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Kyler Murray played 5 games for ARI and scored 80.8 PPR points, 16.2 a game, finishing QB38.

He completed 110 of 161 passes for 962 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 173 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Kyler Murray?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Kyler Murray projects 171 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.1 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Kyler Murray over Baker Mayfield, 17.1 to 16.1 projected PPR points.
Should I drop Kyler Murray for Baker Mayfield?
No. Keep Kyler Murray: he projects 171 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.1 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Kyler Murray over Baker Mayfield, 17.1 to 16.1 projected PPR points.

Should I drop Kyler Murray?